Consumer spending expectations for Prime Day in October 2024

Amazon is likely to see a surge in consumer spending during Prime Big Deal Days as consumers strapped for cash and also feeling nervous about last week's strike at U.S. ports resort to bargains early and often, according to experts.

Amazon's Prime Big Deal Days – also known as the October version of the Prime Sale – takes place on Tuesday and Wednesday. The 48-hour sale is similar to Prime Day in July and offers a wide range of deals and discounts on various products exclusively for Amazon Prime members.

Although Amazon does not release specific sales figures for its Prime events, business is expected to increase compared to last year.

“People are looking for deals because the economy isn't doing as well as it used to,” said Jay Kamhi, creator of the fortune-telling toy “Mr. Predicto” and president of Amazon toy seller Kamhi World, told The Post.

The historic port strikes, which ended late Thursday with a tentative agreement between longshoremen and longshore employers, threatened to hit Amazon by leading to shortages and price increases similar to the economic turmoil during the pandemic.

But Amazon and other major retailers — which have been stockpiling in anticipation of the strikes — wouldn't feel an impact for at least a month, while smaller retailers would face shortages in just a few weeks, SMI Group CEO Kenin Spivak told The Post .

Still, experts advised consumers to start their holiday shopping earlier this year in case of possible supply chain disruptions.

“Since they're not buying perishable items, I don't think it's really hurting the consumer to shop now, put their toys in the closet and then pack them up as Christmas approaches,” Spivak told The Post.

However, he also warned that it is a double-edged sword: If consumers start shopping earlier, shortages will occur sooner.

About two-thirds of container shipments — including goods such as clothing, furniture, toys and electronics — arrive through ports on the East Coast, Spivak told The Post.

The ports on the west coast, which have already reached full capacity before the peak season, are accepting significant diversions.

“Most manufacturers have been monitoring the strike's development for months and have contingency plans focused on West Coast ports,” Hitha Herzog, research director at H Squared Research and part-time lecturer at Parsons School of Design, told The Post.

The last-minute diversions could increase costs by about 15 to 20 percent, but companies will likely absorb those costs, Herzog said.

The higher fees will come from transporting these new West Coast imports to the East Coast via trains and trucks, Spivak told The Post.

Amazon appears to be in the clear, however, as the strikes ended after three days and major retailers had ordered at least several weeks' worth of inventory in anticipation of the strikes, experts said.

Consumers will likely use the Prime event to do some early holiday shopping and stock up on Halloween decorations, Kamhi told The Post.

Smaller home and kitchen appliances are another popular choice during the Prime event, Kamhi said.

The beauty and electronics categories — replete with popular gifts — are also likely to see a sales boom, Gabe Ray, co-founder of Evolved Commerce, told The Post.

Most customers will likely wait to purchase larger items — such as furniture and more expensive holiday gifts — during the traditional Black Friday and Cyber ​​Monday sales, Ray said

According to a Numerator report, the average spend per order during Prime Big Deal Days in 2023 was $55.86.

Average household spending during the sale was $108.86, the report said.

About 28% of Prime Big Deal shoppers said they purchased holiday gifts during last year's sale, and nearly a third of shoppers said they completed at least half of their holiday shopping during the sale, the report said.

About 6% of households shopping during the sale placed at least five orders in the first 30 hours of Prime Big Deal Days, the report said.

After a boom in online shopping during the pandemic, Ray said Amazon is still seeing a trend of consumers switching to online retailers.

“The shift from brick-and-mortar to online shopping continues to grow,” Ray told The Post.

Despite economic influences such as prolonged inflation, consumers continue to spend more money on Amazon each year, Ray said.

Amazon has attracted customers by improving its convenience factor with more same-day delivery options.

While online shopping was once considered a fad among younger generations, “more and more people of the older generation are adopting it and becoming more accepting of online shopping,” Ray told The Post.