Phillies on the brink: They know it. The Mets smell it. Your legacy is at stake

NEW YORK – It's just a baseball game. But we all know it's more than that. It's the game that will define the Phillies' 2024 legacy. And it's roaring right at them, Wednesday at Citi Field.

They trail the Mets two games to one in a National League Division Series where three losses would shatter a summer of dreams. So the reality couldn't be clearer.

The Phillies now have to beat the Mets on Wednesday to earn the right to keep breathing in and out and then show up at home on Friday to try again.

But on Wednesday, they'll have to do it in a place where 44,000 Mets fans consider basking in the Phillies' misery the highlight of their year. And they have to beat a team that plays one of those feel-the-magic roles that used to be the Phillies house's specialty.

The Phillies' season isn't over yet, but it's definitely hanging in the balance. We know it. The Mets smell it. The people of Philadelphia who have been there and seen are already bracing for it.

And if it means anything at all, the team on the sidelines is 100 percent aware of it. The Phillies brought 26 players to Flushing this week. And all 26 can do this calculation.

“Everyone knows what's at stake,” said one of the clearest voices in this clubhouse, backup Matt Strahm, after his team suffered a 7-2 loss in Game 3. “Everyone knows it. From the day we left spring training, it was World Series or bust. I mean, we all know what’s at stake.”

Matt Strahm waits as manager Rob Thomson arrives to remove him from Game 1. (Hunter Martin/Getty Images)

But do they even want to know what their chances are? The assumption here is no. Or, come to think of it, more like, “Ugh, no.” But it’s our job to let you know about these things. So here we go. This also applies to the Dodgers at the moment. But let's not get distracted.

• In the three previous postseasons, eight teams have been in the spot where the Phillies currently are. They had split the first two games of the best-of-five LDS at home and then lost Game 3 on the road. Six of those eight lost that series. Five of those six were eliminated the next day.

• However, if we start this analysis with 2022, the first year of the Wild Card Series, the math becomes even more confusing. In 2022 and 2023, four teams had a bye to avoid the Wild Card Series, just like the Phillies, and split Games 1 and 2 at home. All four of those teams lost Game 3 on the road, as did the Phillies. The only one that survived and advanced was the 2022 Yankees, who won Game 4 on the road and Game 5 at home.

• And of course, the Phillies couldn't be more familiar with this trend – having been on the other end of it two years in a row. They split the first two away games in 2022 and 2023 in Atlanta. They then gave the Braves sayonara by winning Games 3 and 4 in Philadelphia. Twice.

• But we should mention that the Mets franchise also knows how this works. Prior to this year, the Mets had split Games 1 and 2 of a best-of-five series on the road four times in their history. They are undefeated in this series.

So if your team is on the brink, you don't want to hear that reckoning. But on Tuesday night, there was a guy sitting at his locker who didn't care about these horrible history lessons. That guy was Kyle Schwarber. And he's pretty sure he played on a team where the mathematical scenarios looked bleaker.

That team was the soon-to-be-legendary, calamitous 2016 Cubs. In that year's World Series, they fell behind Cleveland three games to one. You know what happened next, right?

They won Game 5 in Chicago, then returned to Cleveland for Games 6 and 7… and won both. So when anyone in the Phillies clubhouse was looking for stories of comeback inspiration on Tuesday night, Schwarber was there to help.

“What I remember,” he said, “was pure confidence. We were confident about who was going to take the mound because at that point Jon Lester was taking the mound. Here we have Ranger Suárez taking the hill. Big game pitcher.

“Okay, then we had Game 6. And Jake Arrieta took the mound. So (back to the Phillies' plight): If we can find a way to get back home, we can get the ball to Zack Wheeler.

“So we have to look at that. You trust your man to go to the hill. And you're confident that with the group here on the offensive side, we're going to do what we need to do to put ourselves in a position to win a baseball game.”

Now here. See how easy this is? Unless, of course, your big-game pitcher (Suárez) is coming off a nightmarish second half in which he allowed opposing hitters to pile up an .865 OPS against him. That was the fourth-worst of any NL starter who made at least eight starts after the break.

Then there is the group on the “offensive side of the ball.” This group is hitting .204 in this series…and for all the Philadelphians screaming out there: it seems worse, There's a reason for that.

Phillies not named Bryce Harper or Nick Castellanos are batting .158 (12 of 76) in those three games. And the 5-6-7-8-9 hitters entering Tuesday have now combined for a 3-for-32 mark (.094) in the series. So if the top of the order didn't get anything done, the rest, with very few exceptions, mostly just baked donuts all week.

Bryce Harper hit an RBI single in the eighth inning of Game 3, but it was too little, too late for the Phillies. (Brad Penner/Imagn Images)

Then there's the bullpen, which should be one of the Phillies' biggest assets in this series. Except then baseball happened. And the Phillies have allowed 17 hits and 13 runs (12 earned) in nine innings, with two blown saves, no converted saves and eight inherited runners who were allowed to score.

So there you have it. That's the formula for getting buried in a Death Valley two games to one. The question now is how – or if – the Phillies have a formula for getting out of this hole.

When the clubhouse doors opened Tuesday night, Castellanos was waiting at his locker. He had some thoughts. And he wanted everyone in the room to hear them.

When asked about the type of pressure his team was feeling, Castellanos was so ready for the question that he showed off his rarely seen Philosopher Nick side.

“As a group, we are coming closer to death than ever before,” he said. “In some ways, we should feel most alive. We are only promised tomorrow. And that's exactly what we've been working on since spring training to get this opportunity. And it’s just a matter of, again, showing up and leaving it all on the board, and however the dice land, they will land.”

You might have thought that talk of dice games and near-death experiences would be hard to beat. But philosopher Nick was just getting started.

When asked how his team could “rinse this,” Castellanos had no interest in reaching for the old dishwasher.

“Rather than just throw it away and forget it,” he said, “I think it's really important now to embrace the situation.” (If) we lose, we go home. Baseball is over for us. (So) it's a great opportunity because if we can get a win here, I know they (the Mets) don't want to go back to Philly for Game 5.”

But if the Mets are afraid of anything right now, you'll need a CT scan to detect it since it hasn't shown up on the field. Why should they even be afraid to face Wheeler, despite the fact that the last time they saw him, in Game 1, they took a hit, swung and missed 30 times?

Want to hear an incredible tidbit? Factoring in Tuesday's win with Aaron Nola starting, the Mets are now 14-3 in games in which the Phillies started Wheeler or Nola over the last three seasons. So there is that.

But there's this: The Mets are now 2-0 in Wheeler/Nola starts in this NLDS and 0-1 when everyone else starts. So how wrong is this? This is the eighth series the Phillies have played in the last three postseasons – and only once in the previous seven (in the 2022 World Series loss to Houston) has a team won games started by both of the Phillies' co-aces became.

“It’s baseball,” Nola said Tuesday night after the rest of the media crowd filed out of his locker. “It happens. They played good baseball against us in those three games and pitched us really well.

“Zack had a great game the other night. One of the best games I've ever seen. But it's baseball. That's why I always say that you never really know, especially when the postseason comes. Anything can happen at any point in the game.”

Pete Alonso's Mets have all the momentum — for now. (Brad Penner/Imagn Images)

Looking at these teams now, it's amazing how insignificant it seems that the Phillies dominated the NL East virtually from start to finish… while the Mets hadn't gotten into this tournament at all until this day after the previously scheduled end of the regular season.

Now it's the Mets who have that look. And the Phillies are playing like a team that flipped the cruise control switch on the World Series Express three months ago — and forgot to turn it off.

Now it all comes down to another baseball game in Queens. But it's not just a postseason series based on it. What is at stake for this group of Phillies? Actually it's quite simple:

How do you want to be remembered? As a great team? Or as a team that spent parts of the last three seasons showcasing greatness but then never finished the journey?

You have experienced the euphoria of October and felt the sorrow of October. Now they have another baseball game ahead of them. If you're wondering how aware they are of the importance of this game, their clubhouse was full of voices Tuesday night promising they would understand. But the only way to rewrite that script is to tackle the 27 outs ahead.

“I mean, the writing is on the wall,” Schwarber said. “Elimination game. I have to find a way to win. There are no ifs and buts, right? We just have to play baseball the best way we know how – and stay away from that big red (panic) button.”

Go deeper

The Phillies appear to be beatable. Everything they have built is on the brink. What now?

Go deeper

The Mets took advantage of the loud atmosphere to get within one win of the NLCS

Go deeper

Sean Manaea of ​​the Mets delivers a brilliant performance with a heavy heart

(Top photo of Nick Castellanos after Jesse Winker's home run in Game 3: Elsa/Getty Images)