The McCaffrey Effect: Impact of the 49ers missing their star RB

Since joining the 49ers in October 2022, Christian McCaffrey has played in 27 regular season games, becoming an important part of the team's offensive strategy. His impact is not only evident in rushing, but also as a versatile weapon in the passing game. However, his absence in 2024 has highlighted how crucial he is to the team's success, particularly in terms of red zone efficiency and third-down conversion.

The McCaffrey factor in the red zone

In the 27 regular season games McCaffrey played for the 49ers, they converted 71.4% of their red zone chances into touchdowns (Pro Football Reference). This season, with McCaffrey sidelined, that percentage has dropped significantly to 43.7% (NFL Advanced Stats). His presence forces defenses to consider him both when rushing and receiving, which creates opportunities for other players. Without him, the defense becomes stronger and the scoring efficiency has drastically decreased.

Impact on third-down conversions in the red zone

Another key area where McCaffrey's absence is felt is on third downs inside the 20-yard line. With him, the 49ers converted 65% of their third downs in the red zone in the 2022 and 2023 seasons (Pro Football Reference). This season, that number has dropped to 39%, causing drives to stall more often and settle for field goals instead of touchdowns (NFL Advanced Stats).

Success in the ground game: running efficiency

McCaffrey's rushing efficiency has always been outstanding. Last season, he accounted for 10 red zone rushing touchdowns and converted 45% of his red zone carries into points (Pro Football Reference). In his absence, the 49ers' rushing success rate in the red zone has dropped to 29%, showing how difficult it is for the team to gain key short yardage without its premier back (NFL Advanced Stats).

Game examples: Where the effect is most clearly felt

To illustrate the impact, consider these games:

• Week 3 of 2023 vs. Giants (with McCaffrey): The 49ers scored touchdowns on 4 of 5 red zone trips (80%), with McCaffrey accounting for two of them. His dual-threat ability created opportunities for quick slants and targeted runs (Pro Football Reference).
• Week 4 of 2024 vs. Cardinals (without McCaffrey): The team was only able to score on 1 of 6 trips to the red zone (17%). Jordan Mason struggled against stacked defensive fronts and Brock Purdy had limited passing lanes, resulting in fewer scoring opportunities (NFL Game Logs).

Moving Forward: Strategies Without McCaffrey

With McCaffrey's status still uncertain, the 49ers will need to adjust their offense to maintain scoring efficiency. San Francisco is currently converting 39% of trips in the red zone in touchdowns without McCaffrey, down 71.4% when he is on the field (NFL Advanced Stats). One area that needs to be addressed is the use of play-action games. The 49ers rank 4th in the league in terms of in-game success rate however, when they use it in the red zone, they have reduced their play-action calls by 15% in McCaffrey's absence (Pro Football Focus).

Possible solutions:

1. Increased Play Action and Pre-Snap Movement:

• When using the pre-snap motion, the 49ers' pass completion rate goes up 82.1%compared to 67.4% without movement (PFF). More movement before the snap would help create separation, especially for Deebo Samuel and George Kittle, who have a combination 71% success rate on break-in routes like Slants and Quick Ins (Pro Football Reference).

• A two-man formation with Jordan Mason and versatile fullback Kyle Juszczyk could provide additional flexibility. If Juszczyk is on the field as a receiver, the 49ers have one 98.6 passer rating when targeted in the red zone (NFL stats). Using it more creatively in sets with two defenders can distract defenders from the primary receivers.

• Historically, Kittle caught 78.9% of his goals in the red zone and converted 63% in first downs or touchdowns (Pro Football Reference). With McCaffrey sidelined, he should see more close-range targets on quick outs and slants.

• Aiyuk was underused in the red zone and only conceded 11% of red zone targets this season, despite one 90.5% disputed catch rate when it is aligned in the slot (PFF). Expanding his slot usage could help exploit mismatches against nickel cornerbacks.

If the 49ers want to maintain their offensive identity, leveraging these schemes and deploying their weapons more strategically could help close the gap until McCaffrey returns. These changes should improve their efficiency and keep them competitive in a tough NFC race.