Top tips from the CFB betting splits for Friday October 11th

Tonight we have a tripleheader of Friday Night Lights action on the college football gridiron. Let’s examine where smart money is headed using our VSiN CFB betting splits. These come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10 minutes.

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Northwestern (2-3) narrowly lost to Indiana 41-24 last week and couldn't cover as a 13-point home dog. Maryland (3-2) is also coming off a bye after losing 42-28 to Indiana and failing to cover as a 7.5-point road dog. That line started with Maryland listed as a 10-point home favorite. The public is undeterred by the double-digit spread and 64% of spread bets have the Terps scoring at home. This one-sided support pushed Maryland from -10 to -11.5. At this point, we saw Northwestern repurchase at an inflated price, causing several trades to fall back down from +11.5 to +11. Some deals even go down to +10.5. Northwestern offers notable contrarian value, as they only receive 36% of the spread bets (but 40% of the spread dollars) in a high-stakes primetime game on FSI. The Wildcats have further value as a conference dog because the built-in familiarity and rivalry aspect levels the playing field and benefits the team in scoring points. Northwestern also has corresponding betting value as a double-digit dog in a low-total game (45.5), with the lower number of expected points scored making it harder for the larger favorite to cover.

UNLV (4-1) just suffered its first loss of the season, falling to Syracuse 44-41 in overtime as a 5.5-point home favorite. On the other hand, Utah State (1-4) has lost four straight and was just steamrolled by Boise State 62-30 without covering as a 28-point road dog. This line opened with UNLV listed as a 19-point road favorite. The public expects UNLV to fail and 70% of spread bets expect the Rebels to score. However, despite this one-sided support, the line has not deviated from UNLV -19. Some trades briefly rose to -19.5 before falling back to -19. Some deals even go down to -18.5. This signals a sharp line freeze and stealthy reverse line move at Utah State plus the points, which also have notable contrarian value as they account for just 30% of the spread bets (but 36%) in a high-stakes late night game of Spread Dollars) obtained on CBSSN. Sharps also hit the over, increasing the total from 64.5 to 66.5. The over receives 53% of the bets but a whopping 76% of the dollars, a remarkable “low stakes, higher dollars” sharp-over split. UNLV is averaging 44.4 PPG on offense while Utah State is allowing 41.4 PPG on defense.

Utah (4-1, 16th) is coming off a bye after losing just its first game of the year, falling 23-10 to Arizona as a 7.5-point home favorite. On the other hand, Arizona State (4-1) just defeated Kansas 35-31 and is now a 2.5-point home favorite. This line opened with Utah listed as a 4-point road favorite. The public is betting on a well-rested Utah to bounce back from its first loss, and 74% of spread bets are on the Utes to score the points. This one-sided bet saw Utah go from -4 to -6. At this point we saw a buyback at Arizona State +6, bringing the line back down to +5.5. A big variable here is the status of Utah QB Cameron Rising, who is questionable after missing the last three games with a hand injury. Arizona State is the highest-stakes game of the night, receiving just 26% of the spread bets (but 33% of the spread dollars) in the highest-stakes game of the night, televised nationally on ESPN. The Sun Devils have a buy-low value as an unranked home conference dog against a strong-selling opponent, as well as a “dog that can score” system matchup (33.2 PPG), allowing them to keep pace or cover back doors.