New York's 17th and 18th district polls in October 2024

NY17: Michael Lawler (R) 45%, Mondaire Jones (D) 44%

NY18: Pat Ryan (D) 48%, Alison Esposito (R) 43%

New Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill polls in New York's 17th and 18th congressional districts come to close elections for the two U.S. House seats. In the 17th District, 45% support incumbent Republican Congressman Michael Lawler, while 44% support former Congressman Mondaire Jones. Three percent support Working Families Party Anthony Frascone and 7 percent are undecided.

“Mondaire Jones leads among young voters under 40, 51% to 40%, and among those over 40, 45% to 41%, but trails among voters over 50, 49% to 40%,” says Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “The Working Families Party candidate also gets 6% among voters under 40.”

Lawler has a 47% positive rating in the district, while 40% have a negative opinion of him. Thirteen percent don't know him. Jones has a 40% positive rating while 40% have a negative opinion of him. Twenty percent don't know Jones.

In the 18th District, 48% plan to support incumbent Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan, while 43% support Republican Alison Esposito and 10% are undecided.

“There is a stark gender gap in the 18th District: men break 52% to 40% for Esposito, women break 54% to 34% for Ryan,” Kimball added.

A majority of voters (52%) have a positive opinion of Ryan, while 37% have a negative opinion of him and 11% do not know the congressman. 47 percent have a positive opinion of Esposito, while 30 percent have a negative opinion of her.

The presidential elections are neck-and-neck in both New York 17 and New York 18. In the 17th District, 49% support Kamala Harris and 49% support Donald Trump for president. In the 18th District, 48% support Donald Trump while 47% support Harris.

The top issue for NY17 voters is the economy (32%), followed by immigration (20%), affordable housing (13%), crime (11%) and threats to democracy (10%). The top issue for NY18 voters is the economy (39%), housing affordability (16%), immigration (14%), threats to democracy (11%) and crime (6%).

Voters were asked whether the number of migrants seeking refuge in the United States represents a crisis, a problem but not a crisis, or not a problem at all. A majority of voters in both districts believe there is a crisis: 56% in NY17 and 53% in NY18. 34% in NY17 and 35% in NY18 think it is a problem but not a crisis, while 10% in NY17 and 13% in NY18 think it is not a problem at all.

methodology

The Emerson College Polling/Pix11/The Hill 17th and 18th District polls were conducted October 1-3, 2024. The sample of likely voters in New York's 17th District is n=630. The sample of likely voters in New York's 18th District is n=630. The polls have a credibility interval, similar to a poll's margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3.8 percentage points. Datasets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, and party affiliation based on modeling of likely voters in 2024. Turnout modeling by state is based on U.S. Census parameters, voter surveys, and voter registration data.

It is important to keep in mind that subsets based on demographic characteristics such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity result in higher credibility intervals when the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the survey's rating range, and at a 95% confidence interval, 1 in 20 times a survey will fall outside the rating range.

Data were collected by contacting mobile phones via MMS-to-Web Text (Aristotle's Phone List) and through an online voter panel provided by CINT. The survey was offered in English.

For all questions asked in this survey, including the exact wording, as well as full results, demographics, and crosstabs, see Full Results. The surveys were funded by Nextstar Media.

NY17 FULL RESULTS

NY18 FULL RESULTS