Red River Rivalry odds, tips, best bets

The 120th edition of the Red River Rivalry begins this weekend when top-ranked Texas faces No. 18 Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl.

Texas leads the all-time series 63-51-5 but is just 3-7 in the last 10 meetings, including a 34-30 loss in 2023, its only regular-season loss. The win was sweet revenge for Oklahoma after it shut out Texas 49-0 in 2022.

Oklahoma, which is changing at quarterback and could be without some key players on Saturday, is an underdog with more than two touchdowns.

As a result, the Sooners could be in for a slow start on Saturday as they try to adjust to the changes within their staff.

Texas vs Oklahoma odds

Texas Outlook

Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers returns to the starting lineup this week after missing more than two games with a hamstring strain.

While backup quarterback Arch Manning admirably led Texas to back-to-back victories, coach Steve Sarkisian put Ewers right back in the saddle.

If Ewers was a quarterback who lacked experience, I would be concerned about him returning at such a big position. However, he has already played in two Red River Rivalry games since earning the starting spot as a redshirt freshman in 2022.

According to Game On Paper, Texas ranks second in adjusted expected points added (+0.54), while Oklahoma ranks 49th (+0.08).

The Longhorns also rank fifth in net yards per game (+3.15), compared to 93rd for Oklahoma (-0.30). As good as Oklahoma's defense is, that's a significant yardage deficit for a team to overcome.

View of Oklahoma

While Texas' injury report is pretty clean, the Sooners aren't nearly as healthy.

Top wide receiver Deion Burks, who is suffering from a soft tissue injury, will not play on Saturday. The junior and Purdue transfer leads the receiving corps in touchdowns (three), yardage (201) and receptions (26).

Burks joins the long list of Oklahoma wide receivers who will miss the game, including Jalil Farooq, Nic Anderson, Andrel Anthony and Jayden Gibson. Farooq had 130 receiving yards when the teams met last year, and Anderson caught the winning touchdown.

Oklahoma's receiving room is so depleted that they are even converting some defensive backs to fill the void.

Additionally, the Sooners have a third different starting quarterback after Dillon Gabriel left for Oregon and Brent Venables decided to replace Jackson Arnold with Michael Hawkins Jr.

Turnovers played a big role in the quarterback change, but one has to wonder if Hawkins will be able to hold his nerve as the first true freshman to ever start a Red River Rivalry game.

Choice between Texas and Oklahoma

While Hawkins finds himself in a difficult situation with so many vital weapons inactive, he can't turn the ball over. Without his best receivers on the field, it will take some time for him to find a rhythm.

Additionally, Oklahoma's running game isn't great considering it ranks 94th in expected points added per attempt (-0.04) and 124th in rushing success rate (32.9%).

The best way to use this information is to shut out Hawkins and the Sooners in the first half.

Betting on college football?

According to Action Network, the Longhorns are 16-9 when scoring 10 or fewer points in the first half under Sarkisian.

This handicap is reinforced when combined with the revenge angle from last season.

Best bet: Texas 1H -7 (-120, bet365)

Why you should trust New York Post Betting

For the New York Post, Michael Arinze hinders most major sports. He has won two 15-leg teasers and a 12-leg parlay in his betting career, which spanned eight games of the Little League World Series. Most recently, he precisely selected the finalists for the 2024 European Championship and the Copa América.