Israel's options for attacking Iran range from the symbolic to the serious

JERUSALEM (AP) — Israel has vowed to retaliate for Iran's massive attack Missile attack last week. The way in which this happens carries great risk and could have significant implications for arch-enemies, the Middle East and the world.

Israel's options range from symbolic attacks on military targets to crippling attacks on Iran's vital oil industry or its secret and heavily fortified facilities Nuclear program.

The intensity and timing of any retaliatory strike was expected to be high on the agenda of a planned meeting between Israel's defense minister and his U.S. counterpart at the Pentagon this week. But late Tuesday, the Pentagon said the meeting had been abruptly postponed.

In a sign of a possible disagreement over the right approach, President Joe Biden has already done so called on Israel not to attack Iran's nuclear program and kept it from hitting the oil industry.

The Associated Press spoke with two former Israeli prime ministers and other experts to explore Israel's options. There is broad consensus that Israel must strike back, but there is much disagreement about how best to do so.

“The question is not whether Israel will retaliate or respond,” former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert told the AP. “The question is in which direction.”

Why is Israel threatening Iran?

Israel and Iran have been embroiled in a bitter shadow war for years – largely due to Israel's battles against Iranian-backed militant groups across the region. Israel has also been suspected of killing Iranian nuclear scientists and carrying out attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, but rarely admits involvement.

Direct clashes were rare. But things changed after Hamas attacked Israel from the Gaza Strip on October 7, 2023, and Hezbollah began firing rockets into Israel the following day. Both groups receive support from Iran.

In April, Iran fired 300 drones and missiles to Israel after it accused the country of killing two Iranian generals at a diplomatic compound in Syria. Almost all rockets faulty or were intercepted, and Israel responded with a limited strike This signaled that they did not want any further escalation.

After the Iranian attack last week, Israel signaled that its next response would be different.

Iran said the firing of at least 180 ballistic missiles was revenge for a series of Israeli attacks against its close allies Hamas and Hezbollah, including the killings of members of the group long-time leader. Although the missiles caused little damage or casualties, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Iran had made a “big mistake and will pay for it.” Members of his hardline coalition have called for a tough response.

What options does Israel have?

Israel has a wide range of targets – from Iranian government buildings and military bases to sensitive oil facilities and heavily fortified hidden nuclear facilities deep underground. Israel accuses Iran of developing nuclear weapons – an accusation Iran denies.

It is a logistical challenge for Israel to strike anywhere in Iran. Fighter aircraft would have to fly over 1,500 kilometers (about 1,000 miles) to their target, requiring complicated refueling in the air and possibly over enemy skies. Any attack would also mean a confrontation with Iran's Russian-made air defense systems.

“Remember that Iran is 1,500, 1,600 kilometers (about 1,000 miles) from Israel and there are countries in between – Jordan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia. Some are friends. Some are enemies,” said Yoel Guzansky, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv and a former adviser on Iranian affairs in Israel’s National Security Council.

“You don’t want to embarrass your friends. They don’t want to get enemy fire from other countries,” he said.

Olmert, who was prime minister from 2006 to 2009, said Israel was more than capable of meeting these challenges.

“We have the capacity,” he said. “I’m not sure it would be wise or responsible to expose them.”

Even if Israel has the resources, there are diplomatic considerations. An attack on Iran's oil sector, its economic backbone, or its nuclear program would almost certainly guarantee an Iranian response and increase the risk of further escalation.

Such attacks could rattle global oil markets and rattle the U.S. economy on the eve of a presidential election. They could also risk Iranian retaliation not only against Israel but also against American troops stationed in the region or Arab Gulf states allied with the West.

“Unlike Lebanon and Gaza, any Israeli attack on Iran has international and global implications,” said Menahem Merhavy, an Iran expert at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem.

So how will Israel respond?

Former leaders disagree about which path Israel should choose.

Olmert said an attack on multiple military targets spread across Iran's vast territory would be more than enough to send a message. The goal is to show that Israel can strike anywhere and at any time, he said.

“That’s what deterrence is all about,” he said.

Olmert said an attack on Iran's oil sector would be an unnecessary escalation that invites a response, and that an attack on Iran's nuclear program was not worth the risk. Not only would this trigger an Iranian retaliation, but the chances of success are uncertain, he said.

“Attempting to attack the nuclear program would be a mistake,” he said.

Another former prime minister, Yair Lapid, believes that Israel should attack the infrastructure of Iran's oil industry.

“This is the most painful goal for the Iranian regime,” Lapid, who was prime minister in 2022, said in a written response to a question from The Associated Press.

“Iran's ballistic missile attack on Israel must be responded to forcefully,” he said, adding that Iran must understand “that its regional aggression carries high costs.”

In an interview with the Israeli news site Ynet, Lapid said an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities should only take place as part of an international coalition in coordination with the United States.

Lapid's predecessor as prime minister and former government partner, Naftali Bennett, has taken an even harder line, saying now is the time for Israel to bomb Iran's nuclear project.

Bennett said in a video posted on social media Tuesday that Iran and its allies are weakened and that Israel has a rare chance to deal a decisive blow to Iran's leadership, economy and nuclear program.

“We cannot settle for Iranian military bases or loud but meaningless actions designed only to deliver a message,” Bennett said. “The time for news is over.”

However, Olmert said he hopes cooler heads will prevail.

“What do we want to achieve and how far do we want to go and how arrogant do we want to be?” he said. His advice: “Try to be smart.”

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Associated Press reporters Julia Frankel, Melanie Lidman and Jon Gambrell in Jerusalem contributed to this report.