close
close

Trump is tied with Harris in the NBC News poll

Posted on by Kennedy
Trump is tied with Harris in the NBC News poll

Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are deadlocked in the latest NBC News national poll. Trump is buoyed by Republicans returning home to support him after last month's tough debate and a resulting poll deficit, as well as by a positive voter assessment of Trump's tenure as president.

These are some of the results of a new poll released three weeks before Election Day. It also shows that Harris's popularity has declined compared to the previous month, after enjoying a major resurgence over the summer; a massive gender gap between support for Harris and Trump; and voters view abortion as one of the top motivating issues ahead of the 2024 vote.

“As summer turned into fall, there was no sign of momentum for Kamala Harris,” said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt, who conducted this poll with Republican pollster Bill McInturff. “The race is a dead heat.”

McInturff said “headwinds” for Harris have helped limit the presidential campaign, including concerns that the vice president represents no change from President Joe Biden and that voters view Trump's presidency in a more positive light than Biden's.

“She’s asking the incumbent party for another term,” McInturff said of Harris.

NBC News poll with photos of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
NBC News

Still, the poll underscores uncertainty about the election (10% of voters say they could change their mind, and a small portion of unclaimed voters are still undecided), a record-breaking share of voters who believe this presidential election Success will have “big differences” in their lives and big challenges for Harris and Trump. Third-party voting could also play a role – Trump gets a small boost if third-party candidates are included in the electoral test, to a 1-point margin.

And in a balanced election, even small changes in turnout among different groups could mean the difference between a win or a loss for either party.

“The challenge for Kamala Harris: Can she meet the moment and fill the gaps that voters have about her?” asked Horwitt, the Democratic pollster.

“The challenge for Donald Trump: Can he ensure that the chaos and personal behavior that disturbed so many in his first term will not stand in the way of governing and representing America?” he added.

“The next month will show whether the candidates can overcome these challenges,” Horwitt said.

In the new poll, conducted Oct. 4-8, in a head-to-head matchup, Harris receives the support of 48% of registered voters, while Trump receives an identical 48%. Another 4% say they are undecided or would not vote for either option if they had to choose between the two major party candidates.

(Read more from NBC News pollsters here To Why this poll measures registered voters and not likely voters?)

That's a change from the September NBC News poll, which showed Harris with a 5-point lead over Trump, 49% to 44%, although that result was within the margin of error.

An expanded ballot of third-party candidates also shows this shift: 47% of registered voters in the new poll chose Trump, 46% supported Harris, and a total of 7% chose other candidates or said they were undecided.

However, in September, Harris held a 6-point lead in this expanded vote.

Given that close elections often hinge on which party does a better job of turning out its voters, the NBC News poll offers a snapshot of what could happen depending on turnout scenarios.

Assuming a more favorable environment for Republicans — meaning slightly higher turnout among men, white voters and voters without college degrees — Trump leads Harris by 2 points, 49% to 47%.

But assuming more favorable turnout for Democrats — meaning more women, more college-educated white voters and more voters of color turning out at the polls — these poll results show Harris beating Trump by 3 points among registered voters, 49%. -46, leading %.

All of these results are within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

(Read a detailed breakdown of these different turnout scenarios and how they would impact the election here.)

A massive gender gap

At 48%-48%, the survey results are as close as possible. However, there are huge differences in support for candidates between different groups.

The poll shows Harris' biggest advantages over Trump among black voters (84%-11%), younger voters ages 18 to 34 (57%-37%) and college-educated white voters (55%-41%). has.

Trump, meanwhile, leads among rural voters (75-23%), white voters (56-42%) and whites without a college degree (65-33%).

However, what also stands out as one of the defining features of the election is the enormous gender gap between Harris and Trump: women support Harris by a margin of 14 percentage points (55% to 41%) and men support Trump by 16 percentage points (56% -40%).

Independent voters are largely split in the poll: 44% of them support Harris, while 40% choose Trump. Compared to other groups, there are more independents who have not yet decided between Harris and Trump – or who say they do not want to choose either.

Harris' popularity is declining

Another significant change in the NBC News poll since September is Harris' popularity.

One of the key developments in NBC News' September poll, conducted after the Harris-Trump debate on Sept. 10, was her double-digit increase in popularity compared to earlier in the summer, before she became the Democratic presidential nominee. Their ratings increased to 48% positive and 45% negative (a net rating of +3).

But in this latest poll, Harris's rating is 43% positive and 49% negative (-6), with the decline coming mostly from independents and young voters.

That's not too far off from Trump's 43% positive and 51% negative result (-8) in the same poll. This positive rating is Trump's highest in the NBC News poll since leaving office.

Perceptions of Biden's presidency lag behind Trump's

Another storyline in the poll is voters' different views of Biden's presidency compared to Trump's presidency – a key question given the candidates' efforts to portray themselves as agents of change in this election.

25 percent of voters say Biden's policies have helped them and their families, compared to 45 percent who believe they have hurt them.

These numbers largely reflect views of Trump's past presidency: 44% of voters say the former president's policies helped them, while 31% say they hurt them.

Additionally, looking back on Trump's presidency, 48% of voters say they approve of the former president's job performance. That's a higher job approval rating than Trump ever achieved in the NBC News poll while he was president.

This also contrasts with Biden's current approval rating of 43% in the poll.

And when asked which worries them more – Harris continuing the same approach as Biden or Trump continuing the same approach from his first term as president – 43% of voters say they are more worried about that Harris will follow Biden's path, compared to 41% who are more concerned about Trump repeating the actions of his time in office.

“The fact that Harris is trailing even slightly on this measure is a red flag because voters are more likely to believe that Biden's policies have hurt their family while Trump's policies have helped their family,” said Horwitt, the Democratic pollster.

Abortion is the biggest motivating issue – and the best issue for Harris

While most public polls, including the NBC News national poll from September, identify the cost of living as a top concern for voters, this poll asked a different question to gauge voter intensity and motivation ahead of Election Day: Is there an issue , that is so close to your heart? about whether you will vote for or against a candidate on this issue alone?

The most common answers, with several allowed: abortion (22%), immigration/border security (19%), protecting democracy or constitutional rights (18%), and cost of living (16%).

The NBC News poll also tested Harris and Trump on nine different issues and the president's qualities, including who would do a better job on some of the key issues that voters see as their top priorities.

Harris' best issue over Trump was abortion (19 points ahead of Trump in handling the issue), health care (+10), and competence and effectiveness (+5).

Trump's most important issues and qualities: dealing with the border (+25), dealing with the situation in the Middle East (+18) and dealing with the cost of living (+11).

On the key question of which candidate better represents change, Harris leads Trump by 5 points, 45% to 40%, but that's less than her 9-point lead here in September.

Other important survey results

62 percent of registered voters believe the upcoming presidential election will make a “big difference” in their lives. That's the highest response to this 1992 NBC News poll question.

As with the presidential election, Democrats and Republicans are tied in congressional preference: 47% of registered voters prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, and the same 47% want Republicans to be in charge. Democrats held a two-point lead in September, 48% to 46%, which was within the margin of error.

And 31% of voters believe the nation is on the right path, while 64% think it is on the wrong path. The share of voters who believe the country is on the wrong track is the lowest in the poll since August 2021, which was also the last time Biden received a positive job approval rating in the poll.

The NBC News poll of 1,000 registered voters, 898 of whom were reached by cell phone, was conducted Oct. 4-8. The overall margin of error is plus/minus 3.1 percentage points.

Related Posts

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *