NBC poll predicts shock for Kamala Harris, numbers suggest decline in popularity after 5-point lead decline

The latest NBC News poll has shown a significant decline in Vice President Kamala Harris' popularity. In the October poll, she and former President Donald Trump are in a tight race three weeks before Election Day. After her surge in the summer, shortly after she took over the Democratic primary, Harris' favorability has fallen significantly compared to the previous month.

“As summer turned into fall, there was no sign of momentum for Kamala Harris,” said Jeff Horwitt, a Democratic pollster who conducted the poll with Republican pollster Bill McInturff. The results show a dramatic shift: In September, Harris had a 5-point lead over Trump, but that lead has evaporated, leaving the two candidates each tied at 48% among registered voters.

NBC poll: Changing voter sentiment

The poll suggests a shift in voter sentiment, with growing concern that Harris represents continuity with President Joe Biden rather than change. This perception, coupled with voters' more positive views of Trump's previous time in office, has helped Trump close the gap.

McInturff notes that Harris is facing “headwinds” as voters see her as a plea for another term from the incumbent party, while Trump is benefiting from a positive reassessment of his past presidency.

Additionally, Harris's approval rating has taken a hit, falling to 43% positive and 49% negative, for a net rating of -6. This is a significant change from last month's survey, where her positive rating was at 48% while she was negative at 45%, giving her a net rating of +3 at the time. The decline in popularity is primarily due to independents and younger voters – key demographics that Harris must continue to support.

The poll also shows a deep gender gap between candidates. While Harris has a 14-point lead among women, Trump has a 16-point lead among men. Both candidates face the challenge of winning the support of independent voters, with many still undecided or unwilling to support either candidate.

As the race tightens, the next few weeks will be crucial for Harris to reverse her decline in popularity and consolidate support, particularly among key groups of voters. Meanwhile, Trump is trying to use his regained momentum to tip the balance in his favor.