NFL picks, odds and props for Week 6 Monday Night Football: Bills-Jets

The Monday Night Football feature increases viewing and betting interest as the first-place Buffalo Bills (3-2) take on the New York Jets (2-3) in a key AFC East game. The Week 6 schedule was good for public bettors as the NFL favorites went 12-1 outright and 10-2-1 against the spread (ATS).

The betting favorites were previously 11-3 SU and 10-4 ATS in Week 5, so the top online sportsbooks have suffered a setback over the past two weeks. But on Sunday and Monday, the underdog Jets cashed in, dropping the Jets betting line from -2.5 to -1.5 and -1.

After the 49ers' high-scoring victory on Thursday evening in Seattle (36:24), the score increased again on Sunday, October 13th. A season-high 49.7 points per game were scored in the 13 contests in Week 6. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers scored 51 points in a win over the Saints. The Bucs rushed for 277 yards and Baker Mayfield rushed for a week-high 325 yards and 4 touchdowns, becoming only the fourth team in NFL history to both run and pass for at least 250 yards in an NFL game. Second-year undrafted RB Sean Tucker made the most of his first extended playing time for the Buccaneers, rushing for a weekly high of 136 yards and 1 touchdown on just 14 carries.

Monday Night Football Odds

Professional football Opportunities from FanDuel Sportsbook are updated regularly and are subject to change, including props and live betting. Listed Point spreads on favorites and over/under game totals.

• Buffalo Bills (-1.5) at New York Jets, 40.5 points
• How to watch: ESPN, 8:15 p.m. ET

The betting line has dropped from Bills -2.5 favorite to -1.5 and even -1 at other leading online sportsbooks. The over/under game total is also down to 40.5, with some injury concerns, temperatures below 50 degrees and winds of about 15 mpg and gusts over 20 mph in the forecast.

Bills Jets Player Props

Running backs Breece Hall (-105) of the Jets and James Cook (+115) of the Bills are considered favorites to score a touchdown during the game. Bills QB Josh Allen (+155) and Jets WR Garrett Wilson (+180) are also popular picks for bettors in this big AFC East showcase on Monday Night Football.

After benefiting from Monday Night Football player props in Week 5 with Saints' Alvin Kamara receiving RB yards, and also two player props from Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb in Week 6, we have another selection below of running back props added along with the popular key player props.

• BUF QB Josh Allen Passing Yards: Over/Under 197.5, Rushing 34.5
• NYJ QB Aaron Rodgers passing yards: O/U 213.5
• BUF RB James Cook Rushing Yards: O/U 56.5
• NYJ RB Breece Hall Rushing Yards: O/U 57.5,
• BUF TE Tyler Conklin receiving yards: O/U 29.5
• NYJ RB Breece Hall receiving yards: O/U 25.5 – Bet over
• NYJ WR Garrett Wilson receiving yards: O/U 60.5
• NYJ WR Allen Lazard receiving yards: O/U 35.5

Sharp Football Analysis provided additional advanced stats and notes on the Bills-Jets matchup with information for you to bet on.

• Buffalo has averaged 1.3 points per drive over the last two weeks (27th) after averaging a league-high 3.5 points per drive in Weeks 1-3.
• The Jets are allowing 1.39 points per drive, which is 4th in the league.
• The Jets are allowing a league-low 4.3 yards per pass.
• The Bills are allowing 5.3 yards per pass, which is 6th in the league.

The Bills averaged just 276 yards at 4.7 yards per game against the Texans and 236 yards at 4.1 yards per game against the Ravens in their last two road games. Last week, QB Josh Allen completed just 9 passes in 30 attempts without WR Khalil Shakir (ankle), whose appearance on Monday against the Jets and a playing time decision are in question. Shakier led the NFL in Expected Points Added (EPA) per target heading into Week 5 and was a very efficient top target for Allen as a slot receiver.

New York lost 23-17 in London last Sunday, but held the undefeated Vikings to 253 yards rushing at 3.8 yards per play. They also somehow lost 10-9 at home to the Broncos in Week 4 despite limiting Denver's offense to 183 yards on 3.3 yards per game. Jets QB Aaron Rodgers averaged just 3.9 yards per pass in those two contests. The Jets' 4.5 yards per game offense ranks 29th in the league.

The Vikings and Broncos are among the top three in the league in blitz rates. But the Bills have the second-highest standard pass rush rate. What further hurts the Bills is that edge rusher Von Miller is out (suspended) and center back Ed Oliver (hamstring) will miss another game.

Jets RB Breece Hall had a 24% target share through the first two weeks to lead all NFL running backs. Over the past three weeks, the Jets have faced three of the top six teams in blitz rate, and Hall has been more involved in pass blocking. The Bills defense gives up 0.44 EPA per goal to NFL running backs (29th) and has had trouble defending running backs out of the backfield since last season when top LB Matt Milano was out of the lineup .

Respected sports handicapper Bob Stoll, an advanced model statistics guru with Dr. Bob Sports, provided additional stats and notes on the Bills-Jets matchup with information you can bet on.

• Defensive coordinator and new interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich named passing coordinator and QB coach Todd Downing as the new offensive coordinator, hoping to inject momentum into the offense with more creative playmaking. New York averages just 4.5 yards per play.
• Buffalo's defense will likely have nickelback Taron Johnson back on the field. Backup Cam Lewis gives up 2.06 yards per coverage snap and ranks 21st of 22 qualified nickelbacks in the slot. Johnson allowed just 0.74 yards per cover snap in the slot last season (4th) and is a huge improvement over Lewis.
• The Bills are giving up 5.2 yards per carry, which is the highest in the league, but they should improve as they returned starting LB Terrel Bernard last week after he missed two games and Taron Johnson , who had 17 run stops last season, ranks second among nickelbacks.
• Aaron Rodgers needs to get the screen game going as RB Breece Hall has a 43% reception success rate (2nd) and Buffalo's defense is giving up 0.44 EPA/target to opposing running backs (29th).
• Josh Allen has one yards per attempt against single-high coverages, only 82% of his yards per attempt against two-highs, and he may struggle as New York's defense has a single-high coverage rate of 52% (seventh highest).
• Jets cornerback DJ Reed is allowing just 0.32 yards per coverage snap (3rd) and will shut down WR Keon Coleman, whose three deep receptions rank 11th.
• New York's interior pass rushing is dangerous with Pro Bowl Quinnen Williams alongside Javon Kinlaw, who ranks 16th in pass rushing efficiency. The duo will wreak havoc opposite Buffalo center Connor McGovern, who ranks third-worst in pass blocking efficiency.

This is a huge division game with current standings, head-to-head games and schedules. The Bills have a more favorable schedule next month and are favorites in all four games against Tennessee, in Seattle, at home against Indianapolis before a highly anticipated rematch at home against the Kansas City Chiefs on November 17th. The Jets travel to Pittsburgh and New England, home of the Houston Texans, and back on the road to Arizona and home against Indianapolis. Both the Bills and Jets have a bye in Week 12.

More NFL betting news, tips, props and information to bet on as the odds and futures adjust after each week's game.

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