America's dead heat in the Trump-Harris election

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Don't bet a dollar on the US elections. With such low odds of winning, you would have to take a lot of risks for a tiny profit. However, you can bet that America will be as divided after the election as it was before. Regardless of whether the winner is Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, the closeness of the race is due to the deep polarization in the United States. A large majority of American voters would walk over hot coals before voting for the other candidate. Half the country will treat the winner as a fraud.

The last time America had such a close election was in 2000. Those were quieter days. The recount in Florida was nevertheless ended by a controversial Supreme Court ruling. Imagine how such a dispute would unfold in 2024. Instead of the “Brooks Brothers riots” — in which Republican men in suits flew in to disrupt the Miami-Dade County recount — militias would gather in disputed counties. The use of electoral counting as a weapon has now become a feature of life in the United States.

Only one of the four outcomes on November 5th would likely result in an old-fashioned U.S. government. That would mean Harris wins the White House while Democrats retain the Senate and retake the House. A Democratic victory would allow government to resume business and limit Trump's ability to challenge his defeat. However, this is the least likely scenario. Both the presidential race and the House race are neck-and-neck. The Senate map is heavily Republican-leaning.

Second, Harris wins the presidency, but the Democrats lose the Senate. Even if Democrats took back the House of Representatives, Republicans could and would block their nominations and bills in the upper chamber. Harris' domestic agenda would be dead on arrival. Global instability would make foreign policy an unattractive alternative. A narrow Harris victory would also increase the risk of a constitutional crisis. Hundreds of Republican lawyers are working on challenges to a Harris victory. Last weekend, Trump predicted that “radical left-wing lunatics” would steal the election. They should be handled by the National Guard and “if really necessary by the military,” he said. Unlike in 2020, Trump has no control over either. But he will use every tool available to overturn a Harris victory.

The third is that Trump takes back the White House as the parties swap control on Capitol Hill – Republicans win back the Senate; The Democrats take back the House of Representatives. The 2024 electoral map makes this more likely than the other way around. Either way, Trump could push through much of his agenda. Divided government always works better for Republican presidents than for Democrats. But a Democratic-controlled chamber could still stand in the way of Trump's most radical plans.

The final scenario is a Republican trifecta. That's about as unlikely as a Harris sweep. I would give everyone odds of about one in five. A MAGA stranglehold on Washington would take America into uncharted waters. All three branches of government would be in Trump's corner. He already has the 6-3 Supreme Court on his side. The court recently ruled that the American president enjoys criminal immunity from almost all “official” actions, including the assassination of his opponents.

You don't have to believe that Trump would go to such lengths to see the ruling as a green light to do what he wants. Without judicial or legislative constraints on his actions, Trump would view this as broad permission to act against his enemies. Mark Milley, who served as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff under Trump, last week called him “fascist to the core.” Milley is one of several former Trump officials whom the former president has branded as traitors. Trump's MAGA appointees would use the mandate to implement Project 2025 – the Heritage Foundation's plan to transform the US into an illiberal democracy.

The question is what, if anything, could end the country's internal Cold War. Most Americans would say the only solution is for the other side to surrender. Trump should be thrown in prison; Liberals must repent of their mental disorder; and so forth. There can be no division of difference with evil. For Trump, a defeat could ultimately mean a prison sentence. For Democrats, a Trump victory could dash hopes of regaining power in a fair election.

With each party believing the worst of the other, it's about the future, not just the next four years. It's hard to look at America's numbers or sense its mood and imagine a quick end to its impasse. In other democracies, there are large fluctuations in party loyalty. Almost nothing in the USA – whether assassinations, a change of presidential candidate or terrible debates – moves voters. The 2024 race is a duel between the warring Americas.

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