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NHC is tracking Invest 94L and could become Tropical Storm Nadine near the Caribbean

Posted on by Kennedy
NHC is tracking Invest 94L and could become Tropical Storm Nadine near the Caribbean

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A tropical depression could form later this week as Invest 94L heads toward the Caribbean Sea, although the chances of development have decreased somewhat, according to the latest update from the National Hurricane Center.

Meteorologists are also tracking another tropical system, this one in the western Caribbean. Based on current conditions, this is expected to spread to Central America this weekend, according to AccuWeather.

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Invest 94L, which AccuWeather is calling a “tropical rainstorm” to raise public awareness, could develop into a tropical storm or even a hurricane over the weekend as it encounters an environment conducive to development.

That development could be short-lived as it encounters “more hostile conditions for strengthening and organization,” said Alex DaSilva, senior hurricane expert at AccuWeather.

The next named strikers of the season will be Nadine and Oscar.

Here's what we know from the center's latest recommendation.

Will Invest94L become Tropical Storm Nadine?

Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely direction of the storm center. It does not show the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is expected to move outside the cone up to 33% of the time.

A widespread low pressure area designated Invest 94L over the central tropical Atlantic is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

This system is forecast to move generally west to west-northwest, and environmental conditions appear to be only marginally conducive to gradual development during the second half of this week.

A tropical depression could form as the system approaches the Leeward and Virgin Islands later this week.

  • Chance of creation within 48 hours: Low, 30 percent.
  • Training opportunity over 7 days: Medium, 40 percent.

“It is possible that the feature could rapidly develop into a tropical depression, tropical storm and hurricane as its core approaches or passes the Leewards later this week,” DaSilva said.

Invest in 94L spaghetti models

Special note on spaghetti models: The figures cover a range of forecasting tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center only uses the four or five best-performing models in its forecasts.

NHC is tracking another disorder

Western Caribbean Sea: Showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea are associated with an extensive low pressure area.

Gradual development is possible if the system remains afloat while moving slowly northwest toward Central America.

Regardless of developments, locally heavy rain may occur in parts of Central America later this week.

  • Chance of creation within 48 hours: Low, 10 percent.
  • Training opportunity over 7 days: Low, 20 percent.

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