The best MLB bets today: odds, predictions and tips for Friday, October 11th

The best MLB bets today, October 11th:

We only have one game on the MLB schedule for Friday night, but it's as big as it gets this time of year. Game 5 between the Padres and Dodgers will decide who faces the Mets in the NLCS and who faces a long offseason wondering what could have been.

We'll get another win or play a home game between the Tigers and Guardians on Saturday night, but tonight it's all about the National League and a very heated rivalry.

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San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers (-142, 8)

8:08 p.m. ET

The Mets will begin the NLCS in California. We just don't know yet if they'll do it at Dodger Stadium or Petco Park. Yoshinobu Yamamoto gets a chance to redeem his poor performance in Game 1, and Yu Darvish has a chance to throw the pads to his second win of the series.

Yamamoto's first playoff start did not go well, as he allowed five runs on five hits in three innings. He only struck out one batter, something we didn't see in the regular season with 105 hits in 90 innings. He dropped four batted balls over 100 mph, including a home run by Manny Machado and one of the hardest-hit balls of the season on a 118.9 mph double by Fernando Tatis Jr. He also had bad luck with two really soft ones Hits against it.

He just wasn't sharp, which is concerning because he started on September 28th and then went into Game 1 on October 5th, so it wasn't like he had a big layoff or anything like that. After missing almost three months, he only managed to get into the starting lineup four times. I guess it's fair that he wasn't at his best. Will he be able to make the adjustments here?

Right-handed hitters had 23 extra-base hits against him in 189 plate appearances on the season as he held lefties to a .267 SLG and .237 WOBA, but right-handed hitters had a .453 SLG and .237 WOBA of .317. All high-velocity balls hit in G1 were from right-handers.

Darvish, who owns a 3.88 ERA and 5.55 FIP in 65 career playoff innings, allowed one run on three hits in his seven Game 2 innings. Of the 25 he faced, he struck out only three batters. The game ended 10-2, but the Padres scored six runs after Darvish walked, so it wasn't like he just ran away with a big lead. However, he had a 3-0 lead after two innings, which certainly helped him settle in.

Darvish was credited with using seven different pitches and his velocity was good on all but the curveball, which was encouraging after what was mostly a losing season for him due to personal matters. But he only had eight moves in 40 swings. With an average exit velocity of 86.8 miles per hour and only six hard-hit balls, he barely managed to keep the Dodgers off balance.

The margin for error without creating swings and misses is slim and that would be a concern for me in a second start against LA. The Dodgers had 28 games with five or fewer strikeouts during the regular season (five in Game 2). They were 20-8 in those games. Interestingly, one of them was a Darvish launch in April. Three of the games were against San Diego and they were 1-2.

All in all, I don't have a bet here that I like. I think it might make sense to go with a right-handed hitter for the Padres with a player prop, but I think Yamamoto will be better. It may be a good fit for live betting since most MLB playoff games seem to have all the management and pitching changes.

For plus money, I'm leaning toward the Padres because I don't think these teams are very far apart and this will likely become a bullpen game relatively early, but not an official pick.