US officials expect Israel's counterattack on Iran to come before US Election Day

Washington
CNN
—

US officials expect Israel to retaliate against Iran before November 5 for its attack earlier this month, sources tell CNN, a timeline that reflects growing volatility in the Middle East within days of the American presidential election would come clearly into public awareness.

The timing and parameters of Israel's retaliation against Iran have been the subject of intense debate within the Israeli government and are not directly related to the timing of the US election, the sources said.

Still, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – described by senior U.S. government officials as a political creature with a deep sense of American politics – appeared to be extremely sensitive to possible political implications of Israel's actions in the U.S., they said.

The growing conflict in the Middle East has emerged as a persistent theme in the American election. President Joe Biden, and by extension Vice President Kamala Harris, have come under pressure from progressives over their handling of the situation. Meanwhile, Republicans, including former President Donald Trump, have accused the administration of bungling the crisis and plunging the world into chaos.

As the election approaches, the government has begun putting new pressure on Israel to improve humanitarian conditions in the Gaza Strip. In a stern letter released this week, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warned Israel that a failure to deliver further aid to the enclave could result in a cessation of military aid.

However, in a sign of tense political dynamics, the letter was not signed by either the president or vice president, and neither has publicly threatened to cut off aid to Israel, despite pressure from the left. The deadline for approving further humanitarian aid to Gaza expires after the election. And the warning came the same week that an advanced U.S. air defense system arrived in Israel to defend the country against Iranian attacks.

How the conflict will develop in the three weeks before Election Day remains one of the biggest uncertainties for the two presidential campaigns. Although the crisis is not a priority issue for many voters, it has complicated Harris' efforts to win Michigan, a state with a large concentration of Arab-American voters. She's campaigning in the state for three days this week.

For Biden and Harris, the outbreak of a major regional conflict would be an unwelcome development on an issue that has already caused them major political headaches.

Netanyahu is keenly aware of how a possible backlash could alter the presidential race, according to some U.S. officials, which could add complexity to the ongoing diplomacy between the two nations in recent months.

Biden did not try to dissuade Netanyahu from a forceful response after the Iranian missile attack earlier this month. But faced with the prospect of all-out war or a spike in oil prices in the presidential campaign, he and his team have worked to encourage measured retaliation.

Biden administration officials have been particularly cautious about the timing and targets of Israel's upcoming retaliation after Iran fired around 200 ballistic missiles at the Jewish state earlier this month.

Netanyahu told Biden last week that Israel had no intention of attacking Iran's nuclear or oil sites as part of this round of retaliation, CNN previously reported, news that was greeted with relief in the White House. Biden had publicly encouraged Israel to avoid these targets.

In a statement, Netanyahu's office said: “We listen to the opinions of the United States, but we will make our final decisions based on our national interests,” an indication that Israel's response will be extensive, despite any assurances he gave Biden could be different than what the White House has promoted.

It is not known whether Israel's attacks on Iran would be limited to physical attacks on military assets or would also include a cyberwarfare component. U.S. officials will be closely monitoring not only their ally's counterattack but also the reaction it will provoke from Iran, as the Biden administration hopes to prevent the outbreak of another all-out war in the Middle East.

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, White House spokesman John Kirby said “there is little doubt that the Iranians know how seriously” the US takes its commitment to Israel's right to self-defense.

“But I don't think it would be useful for me one way or another to go into the details of the diplomacy,” Kirby said, declining to comment on how U.S. officials may have worked to ensure the eventual outcome Israel's response to Iran.

But in many ways these efforts have had a public impact. Biden, who spoke to reporters several times earlier this month, called for a measured response and suggested he would convey those views directly to Israel.

According to the White House, Biden and Netanyahu had a “direct” conversation about plans for a response to Iran in a phone call last week. Harris also joined the secret call and later described it as an “important” discussion.

American officials were extremely cautious about the conversation between the two leaders. Previous conversations between the men became increasingly tense as Biden was confronted with what he saw as Netanyahu's lack of cooperation in ending the war.

Biden is increasingly frustrated that Netanyahu appears to be dismissing his advice and recommendations and publicly rejecting his attempts to lower temperatures in the region. Some American officials have privately speculated that the Israeli leader is trying to bolster Trump in the weeks before the November election.

But until this week, Biden had not threatened to condition American aid to Israel on efforts to improve humanitarian conditions.

In their letter sent Sunday, Blinken and Austin said they were writing “to underscore the U.S. government's deep concerns about the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Gaza and to call for urgent and sustained action from your government this month to address this trend.” “to turn around,” and explained: There are a number of requirements that the country must meet, including allowing at least 350 aid trucks per day into the Gaza Strip.

Although it was not signed by Biden, the letter reflected the president's previous efforts, according to White House staff.

“This is not an initiative that surprised the president at all,” Kirby told reporters on Tuesday. “It is consistent with the communication he has had with Prime Minister Netanyahu.”