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Tropical Storm Nadine, the next storm will be Oscar

Tropical Storm Nadine, the next storm will be Oscar

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The National Hurricane Center continues to track Tropical Storm Nadine, which formed early Saturday morning, and is also monitoring another system in the Caribbean that could develop into a tropical storm or depression on Saturday.

Tropical Storm Nadine was located about 60 miles east of Belize City and 105 miles southeast of Chetumal, Mexico, on the Yucatan Peninsula as of 8 a.m. ET Saturday, the hurricane center said. The storm, which produced maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, was moving west at 9 mph, the center said.

Tropical storm warnings have been issued for Belize City and areas from Belize to Cancun, Mexico, including Cozumel. With widespread rainfall of 10 to 20 centimeters expected, Nadine will trigger localized flash flooding in southern Mexico, northern Guatemala and northern Belize.

Tropical storm conditions are expected along parts of the coasts of Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula through Saturday afternoon, the NHC said. Isolated areas of more than 12 inches are also possible through late Tuesday.

Nadine poses no threat to the U.S. As the storm moves inland, it is expected to weaken by early Sunday and likely dissipate over southeastern Mexico, the center said.

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Tropical Storm Nadine tracker

This forecast track shows the most likely path of the storm center. It does not show the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is expected to move outside the cone up to 33% of the time.

Tropical Storm Nadine Spaghetti Models

The figures cover a range of forecasting tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center only uses the four or five best-performing models in its forecasts.

NHC monitoring system 94L in the Caribbean

The National Hurricane Center is also tracking another system in the Atlantic called AL 94 or Invest 94L, which is producing showers and thunderstorms less than 100 miles east of the Turks and Caicos Islands. The system is moving westward at 10 to 15 miles per hour and is expected to pass north of Hispaniola today and move near the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas and far eastern Cuba on Sunday. Forecasters say the system is becoming “increasingly more organized” and is expected to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm on Saturday, and tropical storm warnings are likely for those islands as well as southeastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba The probability of its formation in the next seven days is estimated at 90%, the center said on Saturday.

The system is expected to strengthen until it passes Hispaniola and Cuba later this weekend, then will likely dissipate or “persist as a poorly organized tropical rain storm in the western Caribbean,” AccuWeather senior meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said. in a forecast on Saturday.

Invest 94L tracker

Invest in 94L spaghetti models

The figures cover a range of forecasting tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center only uses the four or five best-performing models in its forecasts.

When does the 2024 hurricane season end?

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which typically runs from June 1 to November 30, has about six weeks left. There have been 14 named storms so far this season. The next storm to form will be named Oscar.

After about five relatively quiet weeks, the 2024 season – especially with the arrival of Helene and Milton – has become an above-average hurricane season, it is said Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach. In a post on X, the social network formerly known as Twitter, he pointed out that the 14th storm in the Atlantic Ocean usually forms on November 19th.

There is a 50 percent chance of tropical development by Oct. 28, Colorado State University meteorologists said in their latest two-week forecast. “There are indications of possible further development in the western Caribbean towards the end of the forecast period, but these signals are quite weak,” CSU forecasters said.

Atlantic Storm Tracker

Contributors: John Gallas, Cheryl McCloud and Doyle Rice from the USA TODAY Network.

Follow Mike Snider on X and Threads: @mikesnider & Mikegsnider.

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