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Who will win the presidential election? What polls and ratings predict

Posted on by Kennedy
Who will win the presidential election? What polls and ratings predict

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Arizona remains a key battleground state on the path to the White House for both candidates this election year.

Arizona has 11 electoral votes, making it the 14th most popular vote among states. With just weeks to go before the 2024 presidential election, Arizonans' voting intentions continue to be among the most politically polarized in the country, making these 11 votes crucial to securing a victory for either Democrat Kamala Harris or Republican Donald Trump.

Therefore, further candidate visits are planned as the November 5th date approaches. Political ads and copywriting are likely to reach new heights as the campaign for Arizonans' votes continues.

This is what polls, ratings and historians say about Election Day on Tuesday, November 5th.

Who is ahead in the polls in the USA?

Polls and odds are constantly changing, but here is where each candidate stood as of October 17, 2024 at 3:00 p.m.:

  • ABC News Project 538 shows Harris leading in the national polls at 48.5%, ahead of Trump at 46.1%. In the past, Harris has led Trump by as much as four percent, but recent polls show them much closer.
  • 270towin shows Harris leading Trump by 2.2% in the national polls.
  • Realclearpolling shows the betting odds are in Harris' favor, with a margin of +1.5 over Trump.

Arizona: Will there be a swing state in the 2024 presidential election? Here's what you should know

Who is leading the polls in Arizona?

Former President Donald Trump had a slight lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in Arizona in most polls released last week, but polls show the race in the state is still a draw.

  • ABC News Project 538 shows Trump leading Harris by 1.6% in polls in Arizona.
  • 270towin shows Trump leading Harris by 1.7% in the Arizona polls.
  • Realclearpolling shows that the betting odds to win in Arizona are in Trump's favor, with a margin of +1.4 over Harris.

Historian who predicted 9 out of 10 elections comments

Allan Lichtman is a distinguished professor of history at the American University in Washington, DC. He earned a doctorate from Harvard specializing in modern American history and quantitative methods.

He has correctly predicted the outcome of nine of the last ten presidential elections, confirming his prediction of which candidate will retake the White House.

This year, he predicts Vice President Kamala Harris will win.

How accurate were the voting rates or polls in past presidential elections?

According to Conversation, a nonprofit news organization, the betting favorite has lost just twice since 1866.

Polling track record is more challenging because different pollsters surveying different populations can often find higher margins of error.

According to Pew Research, the public's trust in opinion polls has suffered due to errors in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.

In these two general elections, many polls underestimated the strength of the Republican candidates, including Donald Trump.

Arizona Republic reporters Stephanie Murray and Zach Bradshaw and USA TODAY Network reporter Maria Francis contributed to this article.

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