First vote totals suggest Trump “will be president on Election Day”: Mark Halperin

Former President Donald Trump is on track to win the 2024 presidential race based on early voting numbers, according to a longtime political journalist.

“If the early voting numbers stay as they are, and that is a big risk, we will almost certainly know who will win before Election Day,” Mark Halperin, editor-in-chief of video platform 2WAY, said on Tuesday.

Halperin, 59, pointed out that early voting data in at least some of this cycle's key swing states suggests Trump, 78, is currently doing well enough to beat Vice President Kamala Harris, 59, if voters will flock to the polls on November 13th. 5.

“Make no mistake, if these numbers hold up in the states where we can even partially understand what the data looks like, we will know that Donald Trump will be president on Election Day,” he said.

The former NBC News reporter stressed that early voter numbers need to be tracked “daily” and that those numbers “are more important than the polls right now.”

“It matters more than almost anything else,” Halperin argued, “because it gives us insight into a variety of factors that drive Republican outperformance in early voting across a variety of metrics in battleground states.”

Halperin highlighted the early vote totals from Nevada, particularly from populous Clark County, whose county seat is Las Vegas.

“The Democrats usually have a huge lead there, 4,500 votes,” said the journalist. “The rural population is exceeding its share of the electorate.”

Halperin also pointed to a Nevada Independent report on Monday that showed Republicans leading statewide by 8,000 votes.

“Don’t overlook early voting, OK?” Halperin warned. “It can change. We don’t know exactly who is casting these ballots, how they are voting, etc.”

“But every analyst I've spoken to in the last 24 hours, including people who speak publicly, says if this continues, Donald Trump can't lose because the Democrats can't possibly do well enough on Election Day,” added he added.

RealClearPolitics' latest polling average shows Trump leading Harris in all seven battleground states, including Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona and Wisconsin.