Predictions, picks and best bets for Middle Tennessee vs. Jacksonville State – Week 9 of college football

Two teams with opposing tendencies meet tonight in Conference USA as the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders take on the Jacksonville State Gamecocks.

The Blue Raiders have just one win in conference play and my predictions for Middle Tennessee vs. Jacksonville State are that the Gamecocks will crush their opponent.

Read why in my college football picks for Wednesday, October 23rd.

Prediction and best bet for Middle Tennessee vs. Jacksonville State

My best choice
Jacksonville State -20.5 (-108 at bet365)
Picks made at the time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis
Overall, Middle Tennessee has one of the worst defenses in college football. The Blue Raiders rank 126th or worse in overall EPA, success rate, EPA/game and yards per game allowed.

Unfortunately, the offense isn't very good either. Last week the team faced Kennesaw State, which ranked 99th in overall defensive EPA and 112th in success rate. The Blue Raiders were successful on just 38% of their offensive snaps, with an EPA/Play of -0.26 putting them in the ninth percentile nationally.

Even more concerning for MTSU is the fact that its offense only scored 14 points, even though winless Kennesaw State allowed 24+ points to every other team it faced. This also includes the 63 points that Jacksonville State scored two weeks ago at the Owls.

The Gamecocks scored eight touchdowns in this 63-24 victory, the most in school history. Rich Rodriguez has revved up his offense with three straight wins, scoring over 44 points in each.

Tyler Huff is a dual-threat quarterback who will cause problems for every team he faces this season. Against Louisville, Huff even ran for 101 yards and a touchdown.

Middle Tennessee is terrible against the pass and not good at all against the run. Jacksonville State doesn't pass often, but it does gain nine yards, which ranks ninth nationally. It's the running game where the Gamecocks will find the most success, as they average 5.5 yards per carry and run the ball nearly 61% of the time – both top-20 marks.

The Gamecocks rank sixth in Early Down EPA/Play, and the rushing attack led by Huff and Tre Stewart will score early and turn this into a blowout as they wear down a struggling defense before hitting it with big pass play -hit off-play action.

Jacksonville State has won each of its last three games by at least 37 points…covering the 20.5 point spread won't be a problem here.

Middle Tennessee vs. Jacksonville State, Match Game (SGP)

Jacksonville State -20.5

Tre Stewart Over 99.5 rushing yards

Stewart 2+ touchdowns

Stewart had more than 20 appearances in each of his last two games, the most he had all season. In both cases he passed the century mark.

Given his increased workload in recent games and the fact that he's had two weeks to rest, I'd be surprised if he doesn't manage to rush for at least 100 yards.

In addition to his yardage gained, Stewart found the end zone often. He's scored multiple touchdowns in each of his last three games and more than 3 in the last two games. It's worth it for Stewart to beat him multiple times before it's over.

Learn how to place a bet in the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

Middle Tennessee vs. Jacksonville State odds

Middle Tennessee vs. Jacksonville State live odds

Middle Tennessee vs. Jacksonville State opening odds

• Distribution between Middle Tennessee and Jacksonville State: Jacksonville State -21.5
• Moneyline Middle Tennessee vs. Jacksonville State: Middle Tennessee +850, Jacksonville State -1,600
• Middle Tennessee vs. Jacksonville State Over/Under: 63.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Middle Tennessee vs. Jacksonville State distribution and over/under analysis

• In Middle Tennessee, the spread has fallen in his favor in recent days, rising from -23.5 to -20.5. But the Blue Raiders are just 2-5 ATS this season and 1-2 ATS on the road.
• The 63.5 total has not seen any movement and is the highest total for either team this season. MTSU has seen two point totals over 60 and both went under, while the Gamecocks went under with their highest total of 59 against Southern Miss.
• I like the under because I'm not sure Middle Tennessee can do enough offensively to help out. The under is 4-1 in their last five road games, although the Gamecocks have seen the over conceded in nine of their last 11 games.

Things to know about the Middle Tennessee vs. Jacksonville State betting trend

Jacksonville State has reached the over total points in nine of its last 11 games (+6.80 units / 56% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Middle Tennessee vs. Jacksonville State.

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