Weekend box office preview: Curtain up on VENOM: THE LAST DANCE

1. Venom: The Last Dance
Sony Pictures | NEW
Weekend price: $60 million to $80 million
Showtime market share: 29%

Advantages

Tom Hardy's cheeky, over-the-top Venom series gets the culmination of a trilogy with its launch from Sony this weekend Venom: The Last Dance on an estimated 4,000 screens. The film, made for IMAX, will be released on 1,527 IMAX screens in 78 markets worldwide, including China, where the previous entry didn't play but the first grossed $270 million. Although some early reactions described it as “fun” but “not perfect”, most viewers and watchers will rate this game on some scale, as the previous entries were more low-stakes B-movie fodder than serious films . minded comic films. In other words, this dance is less ballet and more bad girl. The first Poison opened in 2018 to $80.2 million before grossing $213.5 million domestically and $856 million worldwide, which is a surprise especially after the character was poorly received in 2007 Spider Man 3. The 2021 sequel directed by Andy Serkis Venom: Let There Be Carnagerode a post-COVID wave of fanboy hype to another identical domestic figure of $213.5, although excluding the Middle Kingdom's cash flow it shrunk to $501.5 worldwide. Bloodbath was the second highest earner domestically after the Sony Spider films Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verseduring the first Poison is still the highest-earning company in the world.

Disadvantages

Kelly Marcel is a longtime collaborator of star Tom Hardy and co-wrote the scripts for the previous two Venom entries, but this is her first rodeo as a novice director. The bad reactions to Sonys Morbius And Madam Web have shown that the studio doesn't have much luck outside the world Poison and animated Spider-Verse films, with Kraven the Hunter I want to test this further in December. We're looking at what's likely to be the lowest opening in the Venom franchise, possibly falling short of the disastrous DC picture of 2022 Black Adam ($67 million). However, the film should continue through its second season, where it will compete with more adult-oriented films such as: B. will compete Here And Juror #2.

2. Smile 2
Paramount Pictures | Week 2
Weekend price: $15 million to $18 million
Showtime market share: 10%

Advantages

After easily surpassing its predecessor with an opening of $23 million (compared to Smilethe $22.6 million bow in 2022), Smile 2 is well on its way to becoming one of the highest-grossing horror entries of the year. The current value is $25 million and is about to end AbigailLifetime earnings are $25.8 million and are sure to go down Imaginary ($28 million) and Night swimming ($32.4 million) before the end of the weekend. Critics and audience reviews all suggest that this is THE ultimate Halloween horror movie title, with a broader appeal than the more grindhouse-centric title More terrible.

Disadvantages

Running with pure momentum, horror 3 held strong with the addition of screens, only seeing a -51% decline. Although it wasn't overwhelming Smile 2The opening could have implications for the second frame as holdouts try to decide which gorefest is worth their hard-earned dollars. The 2022 Smile only saw a -18% drop in its second frame, grossing $18.5 million…but had very little serious horror competition other than the 5th frame of Barbarian and the $805,000 opening of Horror 2. Smile 2 has to contend with the surprise success of horror 3 plus the crossover Jekyl/Hyde genre appeal of Poisonnot to mention the streaming options with the Sam Raimi-produced Netflix series Don't move is canceled this weekend.

3. The wild robot
Universal | Week 5
Weekend price: $6 million to $8 million
Showtime market share: 9%

Advantages

Even after Universal's (arguably premature) premium VOD release Wild robotit still managed to generate $10 million this past weekend, which was at the highest end of our panel's forecast. It only fell -28% to retain second place and is currently playing on more screens than any other title (3,829). Domestically, the budget is $102.4 million, while worldwide it's close to $200 million with $197.8 million and a modest budget of $80 million Wild robot is well on its way to profitability and may continue in the future.

Disadvantages

Although early reviews say it pushes the boundaries of its PG-13 rating, Venom: The Last Dance is still willing to suck off some of the younger teens Wild robot. That may not have a catastrophic impact on the Dreamworks animated film, but it is an audience that hasn't been served since Transformers One five weeks ago. Unusually warm weather on the East Coast may also prompt children to play outside and attend Halloween activities/parades instead of a theater outing.