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Harris is slightly ahead of Trump in the new Reuters/Ipsos poll

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Harris is slightly ahead of Trump in the new Reuters/Ipsos poll

Jason Lange
| Reuters

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WASHINGTON – Vice President Kamala Harris held a slim 46% to 43% lead over former President Donald Trump, with a depressed electorate saying the country was on the wrong track, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll showed.

Harris' lead in the six-day poll that ended Monday was little different from her 45% to 42% lead over Trump in a Reuters/Ipsos poll a week earlier, reinforcing the view that the contest is extraordinary with just two is close There are still weeks left until the election on November 5th.

Both polls showed Harris with a lead within the margin of error, with the latest poll showing her ahead by just 2 percentage points when using unrounded numbers.

The new poll found that voters have poor views on the state of the economy and immigration — and that they generally favor Trump's approach on those issues.

More: Live updates on the 2024 election: Where are Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in the polls?

About 70% of registered voters said in the poll that their cost of living is on the wrong track, while 60% said the economy is going in the wrong direction and 65% said the same about immigration policy.

Voters also said the economy and immigration, along with threats to democracy, were the country's biggest problems. When asked which candidate had the better approach on these issues, Trump was ahead on the economy, 46% to 38%, and on immigration, 48% to 35%.

Immigration was also ranked as the No. 1 issue when respondents were asked what the next president should focus most on in his first 100 days in office. About 35% cited immigration, 11% cited income inequality and 10% cited health care and taxes.

But Trump fared poorly on the question of which candidate would be better suited to address political extremism and threats to democracy, with Harris leading 42% to 35%. She also led abortion policy and health policy.

More: Donald Trump has promised “mass deportation”. It would cost billions.

An exceptionally close race

Harris' lead over Trump may not be enough to win the election, even if it lasts until November 5th.

National polls, including Reuters/Ipsos polls, provide important clues about voters' views, but Electoral College results for each state will determine the winner, with seven battleground states likely to be decisive. Trump defeated Democrat Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election and triumphed in the Electoral College despite winning the national popular vote by two points.

Polls have shown Harris and Trump neck and neck in these battleground states.

The 2024 election is still weeks away. Sign up for USA TODAY's On Politics newsletter for breaking news and exclusive analysis.

The poll suggested that voters – particularly Democrats – may be more excited about this year's election than they were before the November 2020 presidential election, when Democrat Joe Biden defeated Trump.

About 79% of registered voters in the survey — including 87% of Democrats and 84% of Republicans — said they were “completely confident” they would vote in the presidential election. In a Reuters/Ipsos poll from October 23 to 27, 2020, the proportion of respondents confident of voting rose from 74%. At that time, 74% of Democrats and 79% of Republicans said they were certain to vote.

The new survey had a margin of error of 2 percentage points.

Harris entered the race in July after Biden ended his re-election effort following a weak debate against Trump in June. Trump was widely seen as the front-runner at the time, in part because of his perceived strength in the economy after several years of high inflation under the Biden administration, which has eased in recent months.

Given the close contest, candidates' efforts to ensure that their supporters actually vote will likely be crucial in determining the winner. According to estimates from the US Census Bureau and Pew Research Center, only two-thirds of US adults voted in the November 2020 election, marking the highest turnout in over a century.

According to a Pew Research estimate, about a third of registered voters are Democrats and a third are Republicans, with the rest being independents or preferring third parties.

The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll surveyed 4,129 U.S. adults nationwide online, including 3,481 registered voters. About 3,307 of those surveyed were considered those most likely to vote on Election Day. Among those likely voters, Harris had a 3 percentage point lead over Trump, 48% to 45%.

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