Early voting numbers: 18 million and counting. Here's what we know

A version of this story appears in CNN's What Matters newsletter. To receive it in your inbox, sign up for free Here.

CNN
—

Two weeks before Election Day, millions of Americans vote every day, either early in person or by returning mail-in ballots.

Early Tuesday, press reports said more than 15 million Americans had voted. A review of early voting data obtained by CNN from election officials and the firms Catalist and Edison Research around midday Tuesday showed the number had risen to more than 18 million. It will continue to grow. For reference, a total of more than 150 million ballots were cast in 2020.

This year, in the key state of Georgia, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said on CBS News Sunday that he expected up to 70% of votes in his state to be cast before Election Day.

An interesting development in Catalist's data is that there is some evidence in these early reports that Republicans may be edging out Democrats' lead in early voting. According to early data, more Republicans than Democrats voted in Nevada, and the parties are tied in North Carolina. That could worry Democrats who remember 2020, when Democratic mail-in voting was crucial to Joe Biden's victory. It could also simply mean that Republicans do more to encourage early voting.

In any case, earlier Republican votes could stem what was perceived as a “blue shift” when Democratic-leaning mail-in ballots were counted after Republican-leaning Election Day votes in key states in 2020.

First of all, all votes – those cast early and those cast on election day – count equally. This is also a very different year than 2020. In this pandemic year, far more Americans voted by mail than expected this year. A majority of early voting this year will be cast in person.

And while former President Donald Trump hasn't exactly endorsed early voting, the Republican strategists supporting him have. They encouraged his supporters to vote early.

Trump won the state in both 2016 and 2020, but he is on defense there this year, holding several campaign rallies across the state this week.

Nearly equal percentages of Republicans, Democrats and independents have cast ballots in North Carolina so far, either by mail or early in person.

Republican strategist Doug Heye said on CNN Tuesday that he doesn't look at the percentage of Republicans or Democrats who voted early in the state.

“I look at the independent voters in North Carolina and what are they going to do,” he said. “That will be crucial in this election.”

According to CNN data, nearly 1.4 million ballots have already been cast in North Carolina. Compare that to nearly 5.5 million votes cast in 2020.

Heye also argued that in states like North Carolina, where the outcome can be determined by very narrow margins, it is the few undecided voters who can ultimately decide the outcome.

“If you voted early, you've obviously already made up your mind,” Heye told CNN's John Berman. He pointed to events held this week by Vice President Kamala Harris with disaffected Republican former Rep. Liz Cheney that could appeal to remaining unsure voters.

In other words, it's far from over.

More than 1.7 million people voted in Georgia, a large and growing share of voters in a state where slightly fewer than 5 million ballots were cast in the 2020 presidential election. But while voters in Georgia don't register by party, there are other data points to consider.

More women have voted in Georgia, making up 55% of early voters so far, compared to men, making up 45%, according to ballots for which Catalist has data. Biden won more than half of women in Georgia in 2020 and women also made up more than half of voters that year, CNN polls show.

On the other hand, older voters are the largest age group to vote early in Georgia. According to election polls, Trump won it in 2020.

Black voters made up about 29% of Georgia voters in 2020, according to exit polls, and they make up 31% of early voting voters in the state so far in 2024.

There are fewer than 1.5 million voters in Nevada Although many people voted for president in 2020, just under 250,000 have voted so far in 2024. But unlike Georgia, more men than women voted, according to available data.

The opposite is true in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, Rust Belt states, where more women voted early. So far, fewer than 400,000 ballots have been cast in Wisconsin, compared to more than 3 million presidential ballots in 2020. Nearly a million ballots were cast in Pennsylvania in early 2024, compared to nearly 7 million total votes in 2020.

In Georgia and Pennsylvania, white voters make up a slightly larger share of ballots cast so far than at this point in 2020, while Black voters make up a slightly smaller share. The share of Latino and Asian voters has remained consistent compared to four years ago. In Wisconsin, where 89% of voters so far are white, the racial breakdown is about the same as it was at this point in 2020.

Beyond the differences in how people voted this year, it's difficult to compare 2020 to 2024 because populations in key states and across the country have changed over the past four years, according to Ronald Brownstein, senior political analyst at CNN .

Brownstein spoke with Brookings Institution demographer William Frey, who argues in a new analysis that the share of college-educated white voters and voters of color who tend to support Democrats has increased by about a percentage point nationally. The share of white working-class voters, who increasingly form the backbone of the modern Republican Party, has declined faster in Wisconsin and Michigan than in Pennsylvania.

These seemingly small changes could have a very big impact, Brownstein said.

“It looks a bit like a butterfly effect race where… any unrest in the environment could be enough to change the dynamic between these two coalitions, which are completely opposite in their desires for the country and are almost exactly the same size.” said Brownstein on CNN.

CNN's Molly English, Matt Holt and Ethan Cohen contributed to this report.