According to polls, Kamala Harris is doing better in the battleground states

Polls show Vice President Kamala Harris performing better in battleground states than nationally.

A CNBC poll conducted between Oct. 15 and Oct. 19 among 1,000 voters nationwide found that former President Donald Trump had a two-point lead nationally — 48 percent to Harris' 46 percent, which was within the poll's margin of error 3.1 percentage points.

However, in the seven battleground states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – Trump's lead fell to 1 point, 48 percent, to Harris' 47 percent. This part of the survey had a margin of error of 4 percentage points. Trump's lead in the poll remained unchanged from August.

In a Fox News poll conducted between Oct. 11 and Oct. 14 of 1,110 registered voters and 870 likely voters, Harris was six points ahead of Trump in the seven swing states — 52 percent to Trump's 46 percent. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 6.5 percentage points in the battleground states.

The poll also found that Trump had overtaken Harris nationally, 50 percent to 48 percent, within the poll's general margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. That's a 4-point increase from when Harris led Trump by 2 points a month ago, also within the margin of error.

The poll bucks the trend of Harris leading nationally and Trump leading in battleground states. Newsweek emailed the Trump and Harris campaigns seeking comment.

Statistician Nate Silver's poll tracker and poll aggregator 538 shows that Harris is still ahead nationally, while Trump has a higher chance than his opponent of winning the Electoral College.

Silver's latest forecast showed that Trump had a 53.1 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, while Harris had a 46.6 percent chance. It also showed Harris ahead by 1.6 points nationally, with a 73 percent chance of winning the popular vote, compared to Trump's 28 percent chance.

Pollster 538's forecast also shifted in Trump's favor, showing he had a 51 percent chance of winning the election, compared to Harris' 49 percent. In his tracker, Harris was 1.7 points ahead nationally.

Trump's strength in the Electoral College is largely due to his position in battleground states that are crucial to winning the election.

According to 538's tracker, Harris leads in Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada by a narrow margin of between 0.2 and 0.7 points. A month ago, she led the three states by as much as 2.4 points. Meanwhile, Trump is ahead by 0.9 to 1.8 points in North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia. He also leads by 0.2 points in Pennsylvania, where Harris has been in the lead since his rise to the Democratic leadership.

Silver's prediction found that if Harris won only Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada, she would have a 0.6 percent chance of winning the election. With Pennsylvania, their chances increased to 98.9 percent. However, according to Silver's model, there is only a 2.9 percent chance of this scenario occurring.

RealClearPolitics' forecast showed Trump winning in every battleground state, giving him 312 Electoral College votes to Harris' 227, while Silver's model showed Trump had a 24 percent chance of winning every battleground state, making it the most likely scenario.

Still, the race remains a back-and-forth. “The race has gone from almost back-and-forth to definitely back-and-forth,” said Jon Parker, a lecturer in American studies at Keele University in the United Kingdom Newsweek last week. He added that this “does not mean either campaign wins or loses.”