Bad news for Kamala Harris – Majority says the economy is going in the wrong direction

More than half of Americans believe the economy is headed in the wrong direction, which experts say could cost Kamala Harris on Election Day.

Although inflation is easing and interest rates are starting to fall, the polls are in favor Newsweek As of October 6, it found that 51 percent of voters think the economy is going in the wrong direction, while 30 percent think it is going in the right direction.

Differences become clear when answers are separated according to voting intention. About 79 percent of Republican-leaning voters feel negatively about the economy — up from 60 percent in September 2023 — while just 23 percent of Democratic-leaning voters currently feel the same way.

This article is part of NewsweekThe tracker survey asked Americans questions over the past 16 months about issues such as abortion, immigration and the war in Ukraine.

This data is based on surveys conducted exclusively by Redfield & Wilton Strategies on behalf of Newsweek between July 2023 and October 2024. A total of 19 surveys were carried out, asking a total of 34,800 eligible voters about the central issues of the 2024 election.

Our poll found that the economy is voters' top concern ahead of the November election. When asked which issues were most likely to influence their vote, the economy ranked first in all surveys conducted since July 2023 and was regularly mentioned by around 60 percent of respondents.

The concerns are shared across party lines. The share of Democratic voters who believe they are better off today than they were three years ago fell from 54 percent in September 2023 to 43 percent in October 2024.

Republicans also say they are worse off now under the Biden-Harris administration than before, although by a significantly larger margin. As of July 2023, 66 percent of Trump voters said they were worse off than when Trump was president. Under the current Biden-Harris administration, this figure rose to 76 percent in October of this year.

During the 1980 presidential election, Ronald Reagan, when challenging incumbent Jimmy Carter, asked voters: “Are you better off than you were four years ago?” And it is precisely this dilemma that could cost Harris at the polls, said Philip van Scheltinga , research director at Redfield & Wilton Newsweek.

“The 2020 election was very much a referendum on Donald Trump, with 'not Trump' narrowly winning. Now, four years later, Americans have experienced what is 'not Trump,' whether it was (President Joe) Biden or Harris, and they can properly compare the two experiences. While polls show a tight race between Harris and Trump, the polls are clear on the Reagan question: Americans are largely worse off than they were a few years ago, and they do “view Bidenomics as a failure.”

Keith Gaddie, a political science professor at Texas Christian University, agrees that Harris' success could depend on whether voters blame incumbent Joe Biden for their economic woes and whether she is lumped in as vice president. “The question mark for Harris is whether those who say the economy is going in the wrong direction will blame Biden?” he recounted Newsweek.

The poll also shows that incumbent President Biden's fiscal policies have proven unpopular with nearly half of all Americans.

47 percent of Americans believe Bidenomics have moved the economy in the wrong direction since October, compared to 31 percent who believe Biden's economic policies have moved the economy in the right direction. Not surprisingly, Trump voters are significantly more likely to say things are going in the wrong direction (83 percent) than Harris supporters (15 percent). These positions remained largely constant throughout the election period.

Why are Americans worse off?

In any case, the economy is currently in better shape than in recent years. The coronavirus pandemic has upended life as we know it for several years, and the economy has evolved in lockstep with this disruption, from significant increases in global commodity prices to industry-specific price increases driven by a mix caused by pandemic-related disruptions in supply chains and a significant shift in consumer demand from services to goods.

However, this recovery has not necessarily resulted in a better financial situation for the average American. Across all age and voter groups, 47 percent of Americans said in July 2023 that they were worse off than they were in July 2020. In October 2024, more than a year later, 48 percent still answered the same way. Those who said they were doing better remained at 28 percent, varying by a few percentage points throughout the survey period.

“Despite the significant decline in the inflation rate since its peak in mid-2022, many Americans feel worse off financially because overall price levels have increased significantly,” Kuhn explained. “Since the start of the pandemic, the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 21.7 percent from February 2020 to August this year.”

“While wages have mostly kept pace with inflation, continued increases in the cost of essentials like housing, food and transportation have made it harder for people to adjust,” said economist Sam Kuhn Newsweek. “Even if inflation eases, high prices will continue to reduce purchasing power, making it more difficult for many to maintain their current standard of living.”

“Wages, on average, have kept pace with inflation — they are the same or higher than before the pandemic — but people still feel like they still can't afford as much, despite pay increases and a historically strong job market as they could have expected,” agreed Ethan Struby, assistant professor of economics at Carleton College.

He told Newsweek: “A really concrete example is the real estate market. Real estate prices are high and interest rates are still high. People may be frustrated because they still can’t afford a house despite having higher incomes than in the past.”

Read more from our tracker survey series:

Abortion overtakes immigration in voters' minds
Kamala Harris voters want a tough stance on immigration
The US election will likely decide the fate of Ukraine. Here's what voters think