Big 12 Chaos Meter: Can Iowa State, BYU enter midseason undefeated?

We're nearing the halfway point and the Big 12 race is still in disarray. Four teams are ranked in the Associated Press Top 25 and five are undefeated in conference play. Will this Saturday bring some separation?

This week's Big 12 Chaos Meter: 4/5 🤯🤯🤯🤯

There are only five games this week, but most of them factor into the crowded Big 12 race. At least one of the league's 0-2 teams will be eliminated, and two more face tough tests. There are also three night starts.

Image of the college football playoffs

Which teams are contenders for the Big 12 Championship and a spot in the College Football Playoff? Can the league get more than one team into the playoffs? Let's take a look at the race:

✅ Hold onto: BYU, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Colorado, Utah

📈Trending: Kansas State, West Virginia, Arizona State

📉 Downtrend: Arizona, UCF

📝 Work to be done: Cincinnati

⚠️Danger area: TCU

🚩 Forget it: Baylor, Houston, Kansas, Oklahoma State

• Complete Big 12 rankings

Let's rank the Big 12's top matchups in Week 7 based on possible absurdity, but first, a look at this week's big game.

(All points spreads come from BetMGM; click here for live odds. All kick-off times are Easter and Saturday unless otherwise noted.)

Game of the week

No. 11 Iowa State (5-0, 2-0 Big 12) at West Virginia (3-2, 2-0), 8 p.m., Fox

Iowa State continues to sneak up on people, quietly climbing to No. 11 in the AP Top 25 poll after a 5-0 start. Aside from that impressive 20-19 win at Iowa in Week 2, the Cyclones haven't faced much resistance, but to their credit they've taken care of business, including bouncing back from a slow start against Baylor last week and win with a comfortable score of 43:21.

The defense was solid as always, but the offense could be the unique selling point this season. Quarterback Rocco Becht is averaging 8.9 yards per attempt, receiver Jayden Higgins has scored a touchdown in seven straight games and transfer running back Jaylon Jackson has proven to be a shifty spark, rushing for 107 yards and two touchdowns against the Bears.

The Mountaineers have also settled in, winning two in a row to open the Big 12 and totaling 389 rushing yards against Oklahoma State last week. Saturday will also mark West Virginia's first-ever Coal Rush game, featuring alternate black uniforms as a tribute to the state's coal mining heritage.

“Don’t tell me that wouldn’t be bad-”@GoMartStores | #HailWV

– WVU Sports (@WVUSports) May 2, 2024

We'll see if a little prime-time blackout energy in Morgantown is enough to dash Iowa State's burgeoning playoff hopes, just as the Cyclones and a rookie named Brock Purdy did against then-No. 6 West Virginia at Ames in 2018.

Potential for chaos: 4/5 🤯🤯🤯🤯

Line: Iowa State -3

High potential for chaos

No. 16 Utah (4-1, 1-1) at Arizona State (4-1, 1-1), Friday, 10:30 p.m., ESPN

A Pac-12 After Dark Legacy game for two teams now fighting to stay in the Big 12 race. Utah, the preseason favorite, has real urgency after losing its first league game to Arizona on Sept. 28. Quarterback Cam Rising hasn't played since the Week 2 win over Baylor due to injury. Freshman Isaac Wilson is talented but has thrown five touchdowns and five interceptions in his three starts.

Arizona State was the surprise of the league and Kenny Dillingham's efforts to #ActivateTheValley paid off. The surging Sun Devils showed resilience, bouncing back from a loss to Texas Tech last week by defeating Kansas 35-31 in a thriller.

ASU does it with balance. Quarterback transfer Sam Leavitt has been effective and running back Cam Skattebo continues to come up big. The Sun Devils ran for 300 yards and threw four touchdowns in a game last week for the first time since 2015.

And the players seem to love Dillingham. Just ask Skattebo.

Kenny Dillingham has to watch out for Cam Skattebo…you never know where he might be hiding. pic.twitter.com/IVp7s4FRDi

– Sun Devils State (@AZSportsDevils) October 6, 2024

Potential for chaos: 4/5 🤯🤯🤯🤯

Line: Utah -4.5

No. 18 Kansas State (4-1, 1-1) at Colorado (4-1, 2-0), 10:15 p.m., ESPN

After sharing the Big Eight and Big 12 for decades, the two will now meet again for the first time since 2010, Colorado's final season before joining the Pac-12. Colorado leads the all-time series at 45-20-1, but a lot has changed since the last time the two met.

The Buffs' dominant win over UCF two weeks ago gave them legitimacy as Big 12 contenders. If they can defeat Kansas State – the team was ranked second in the preseason poll – there's no denying how real Colorado is in the race about the league.

What really strengthened the Buffaloes is their defense in the second half. They allow an average of just 5.2 points in the second half, which is the eighth-best defense in the country in the second half, according to TruMedia.

Kansas State has become accustomed to bouncing back from losses in the Chris Klieman era. After a loss to BYU on September 21, the Wildcats defeated Oklahoma State 42-20, their eighth straight win after a loss in the regular season.

Potential for chaos: 4/5 🤯🤯🤯🤯

Line: Kansas State -4

Medium chaos potential

Arizona (3-2, 1-1) at No. 14 BYU (5-0, 2-0), 4 p.m., Fox

This catfight gets the “Big Noon Kickoff” treatment as the Cougars look to continue their perfect start. BYU coach Kalani Sitake's first game as the school's head coach came against Arizona in 2016, the first of three straight wins for the Cougars in the series. If it can finish fourth, BYU will enter the second half of the season in great shape and compete for the Big 12 title and a playoff spot.

After being outnumbered for more than two quarters by Texas Tech last week, Arizona rallied from an 18-3 deficit to take a one-point lead late but couldn't finish the job. The Wildcats need this to reverse the momentum – they've lost two of their last three – and stay in contention for the division, because the schedule doesn't get much easier: Arizona hosts Colorado and West Virginia in the next two weeks.

Potential for chaos: 3/5 🤯🤯🤯

Line: BYU-4.5

Low potential for chaos

Cincinnati (3-2, 1-1) at UCF (3-1, 1-1), 3:30 p.m., ESPN2

A rivalry of sorts that was fueled when both teams competed against each other in the AAC with proud, veritable online fan bases. Aside from the low potential for chaos, that familiarity should light some fires, including a couple of former Bearcats in Deshawn Pace and Myles Montgomery who are now committing to UCF. Both sides could definitely use a win. Before last week's bye, Cincinnati lost a last-second heartbreaker on the road to Texas Tech, while the Knights suffered back-to-back losses to Colorado and Florida.

With the score at 1-1 in league play, neither team is out of the Big 12 race, but perhaps more realistically, a win on Saturday would go a long way toward ensuring both sides make bowl appearances this season. Achieve authorization.

Weather permitting and the state preparing for the impact of Hurricane Milton, expect a high-profile matchup between two potent offenses and suspect defenses, with the latter units each ranking in the bottom half of the league in yards per play allowed Big 12 rankings. Transfer quarterback Brendan Sorsby was a godsend for the Bearcats, ranking 10th in the FBS with 296.2 passing yards per game, while UCF running back RJ Harvey ranked ninth in the FBS with 120 rushing yards per game.

Potential for chaos: 🤯🤯

Line: UCF-3

(BYU coach Kalani Sitake photo: Ron Jenkins / Getty Images)