Donald Trump is now the favorite in the top five election predictions

Donald Trump is viewed by five different forecasters as the favorite to win the 2024 election, with just under two weeks to go before the campaign begins.

Decision Desk HQ/The Hill and 538 both recently said Trump is the favorite to win the election over Kamala Harris for the first time this cycle.

Trump is also considered a leading candidate by pollster Nate Silver, who founded 538 and now uses a similar model for his Silver Bulletin blog, as well as poll aggregators RealClearPolitics and VoteHub.

Decision Desk HQ/The Hill and 538 said that while Trump is a slight favorite, the race should still be considered a toss-up. Neither Trump nor Harris has a clear lead in any of the seven key swing states, which could determine who wins the election overall. The two are essentially tied in all five forecast models in Pennsylvania.

The Keystone State is crucial for both Harris and Trump to win 270 votes in the Electoral College. Harris will reach the 270-vote threshold if she wins the blue-wall swing states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, barring any surprise results elsewhere. Trump will be declared the winner if he wins Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina.

Harris is ahead of Trump in all five forecasters' national polling averages, suggesting the vice president could win the popular vote but lose the election overall.

In response to the forecasts, Trump campaign spokesman Steven Cheung said Newsweek on Monday: “President Trump is outperforming Kamala Harris, and voters know that America can no longer survive under Kamala's destructive policies of soaring inflation, an out-of-control border and rampant crime that terrorizes every community.”

Newsweek Harris' team emailed for comment.

Decision Desk HQ/The Hill said Oct. 20 that Trump has a 52 percent chance of winning in November after gaining in the polls in Wisconsin and Michigan and expanding his existing lead in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.

“However, polls in the seven key battleground states – Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin – remain within the margin of error, meaning typical poll inaccuracies could skew results in either direction,” the Decision Desk said Said the HQ team.

“These states are expected to be crucial in determining which candidate reaches the crucial 270 electoral votes. Currently, neither Trump nor Harris has a clear lead in enough states to secure that number.”

On Friday, 538 declared Trump the favorite to win the election over Harris, giving the former president a 53 percent chance of winning in November.

“You might be tempted to make a big deal about our forecast switching to Trump, but it's important to remember that a (53) in 100 chance for Trump isn't all that different from a 58 chance to 100 for Trump. “Harris – both are little better than a coin toss for the leading candidate,” wrote G. Elliot Morris of 538.

“While Trump has undeniably gained some ground in recent weeks, a few good polls for Harris could easily put her back on top tomorrow. Our general characterization of the race – that it was a false decision – remains unchanged.”

Silver said Friday that Trump had once again become the frontrunner over Harris in the 2024 race, giving the former president a 50.2 percent chance of victory.

According to VoteHub's state polling averages, the former president had 283 Electoral College votes in November. Trump currently leads Harris by 0.1 points in Michigan, 0.2 in Nevada, 0.3 in North Carolina, as well as 0.7 in Georgia and 1.4 in Arizona.

RealClearPolitics has Trump ahead of Harris in all seven swing states.

The former president is ahead in Arizona by 1.6 points, in Nevada by 0.8 points, in Michigan by 1.2, in Pennsylvania by 0.8 points, in North Carolina by 0.5, in Georgia by 1.8 points and in Wisconsin with 0.2 points.

Harris has a 0.9 percentage point lead over Trump in the RealClearPolitics national polling average (49.2 percent to 48.3).