Donald Trump Leads Kamala Harris Despite Trailing Voters: Nate Silver

According to his latest election forecast from October 19, Nate Silver ranked Donald Trump ahead of Kamala Harris in terms of his chances of winning the election.

Despite trailing Harris in the national polls, vote share and projected Electoral College wins, the Silver Bulletin predicted Trump has a higher chance of winning at 51% than Harris at 49%.

In his Silver Bulletin piece on Saturday about this incongruity, Silver wrote: “Needless to say, stranger things have happened than a candidate trailing in the polls winning. And in America’s polarized political climate, most elections are close, and a candidate is rarely out of the race.”

Newsweek I emailed Silver after hours on Sunday for comment.

Newsweek He also emailed a spokesperson for Harris and the Trump campaign outside of business hours Sunday for comment.

In the national polls, Silver is ahead at 49.1%, with Trump leading at 46.8%. In the Electoral College votes, Harris is at 274 while Trump is at 264.

Like Silver, aggregation site FiveThirtyEight sees this forecast as insignificant and continues to call the election a “nonsense” and posts: “You might be tempted to make a big deal about our forecast switching to Trump, but it's important.” Remember, a 52-in-100 chance for Trump isn't all that different from a 58-in-100 chance for Harris – both are little better than a coin toss for the front-runner.”

FiveThirtyEight continued: “While Trump has undeniably gained some ground in recent weeks, a few good polls for Harris could easily put her back on top tomorrow. Our general characterization of the race – that it is a failure – remains unchanged.”

Trump took the lead in Silver's election forecast on October 17 for the first time since September 19, and his odds of winning have increased slightly in the days since that forecast.

However, with Trump ahead in favor of winning the election, Harris was well ahead in the popular vote in this previous election forecast with 75%.

Silver noted in a post on “I can be pretty sure this is real movement and not statistical noise” on October 18.

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