Donald Trump narrowly leads in Kamala Harris' must-win state: poll

Former President Donald Trump took a narrow lead on Thursday in one of the key swing states that Vice President Kamala Harris needs to win – Pennsylvania.

The Emerson College Polling/RCPA Pennsylvania poll, conducted Oct. 21-22 among 860 likely voters in the swing state, found Trump garnered support from 49 percent of voters while Harris received 48 percent, while 3 percent remained undecided . The survey's margin of error was plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.

Pennsylvania is one of seven battleground states that will have a major impact on who becomes the next president. Both candidates made multiple appearances there in recent weeks in an attempt to win the state's 19 Electoral College votes.

Harris' clearest path to victory next month would be to win the three battleground blue wall states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, barring any surprise results elsewhere. Trump's most efficient path to 270 votes in the Electoral College would be to win the swing states North Carolina and Georgia while ousting Pennsylvania.

Meanwhile, Thursday's poll found that most voters had made up their minds weeks ago, with just 4 percent making up their minds in the past week.

“Voters who decided more than a month ago favor Trump 51% to 47%, while voters who decided within the last month/week lean toward Harris 52% to 45%,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling in a press release.

There was a small change this month compared to the Emerson College/RCPA September survey. At that time, the candidates were neck and neck with 48 percent each.

As in other swing states, the poll numbers for Harris and Trump remain close. Nate Silver's poll tracker showed the pair tied at 48 percent each on Wednesday, while FiveThirtyEight showed on Thursday that Trump had a 0.3 percent lead over Harris (47.9 to 47.6 percent).

Looking at the results of the Emerson College/RCPA poll, the gap widened when it came to voters of different ages.

Those under 50 favored Harris more (57 percent versus 39 percent for Trump), while that was essentially reversed among those over 50. Among undecided voters, Harris seemed more likely to win them over, with 51.6 percent leaning toward her to Trump's 48.4 percent.

“Even after Democrats raised and spent a billion dollars to redefine Kamala Harris, (former) President Trump is winning or tied in every battleground, including Pennsylvania, because his message resonates with voters across the country,” said the Republican National Committee (RNC spokeswoman Anna Kelly said Newsweek by email.

Kelly added that voters favored Trump because the Democratic Party supports liberal policies.

Newsweek He also reached out to the Harris campaign via email Thursday morning seeking comment.

When Emerson College released its poll at a similar point in the 2020 campaign, President Joe Biden was five points ahead of Trump (50 percent to 45 percent). The race had become tighter compared to previous months and the final result was even closer, with a victory of 1.2 percent for Biden.

In 2016, Emerson College showed that Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton was ahead of Trump with 48 percent of the vote compared to 43 percent of voters, but in that race, Trump secured victory with 48.8 percent of the vote compared to Clinton's 47.6 percent.

Harris was in Pennsylvania for a town hall meeting with CNN on Wednesday, while Trump was in the state working at a McDonald's drive-thru over the weekend. Trump used the opportunity to attack Harris for claiming she never worked at the fast food chain. The vice president previously said she worked at McDonald's as a student. The former president will return to Pennsylvania on Saturday.