Early voting in Nevada could signal “serious danger” for Kamala Harris

Early voting in Nevada is a warning sign for Kamala Harris, with Republicans holding an unexpected lead after the first three days of early and mail-in voting.

Data released by the Nevada Secretary of State at 10 p.m. Monday showed that Republicans have overtaken Democrats in mail, EASE and early voting: 96,858 ballots were cast by registered GOP voters, compared to 88,983 by registered Democrats , giving the Republican Party an 8,000 vote share lead statewide, or 3 percent. Another 59,515 votes were cast by voters not affiliated with either major party.

Nevada has been a key battleground state in presidential elections throughout its history. Although she has supported Democratic candidates since 2008, the victories have often been close (Biden won in 2020 with 33,596 votes and Clinton won in 2016 with 27,202 votes). Newsweek emailed the Democratic and Republican Parties of Nevada seeking comment.

Nevada political analyst and columnist Jon Ralston, editor of The Nevada Independent, wrote in his daily early voting blog that Republicans in Nevada had not had a lead in early voting at this point in a presidential campaign since 2008. “Machine” ( the coalition of voters that supported Democratic Senator Harry Reid) helped ensure Democratic dominance.

While Democrats lead in mail-in voting (42.5 percent Democrats and 30.2 percent Republicans), Republicans dominate in in-person early voting (27.8 percent Democrats and 51.9 percent Republicans), giving them the lead overall so far .

Ralston wrote that the early voting numbers “could signal serious danger for Democrats and for Kamala Harris here.” He added that “the Clark firewall has all but collapsed,” referring to Democrats' reliance on strong turnout in Clark County, Nevada's largest and most Democratic county.

Clark County, home to more than 1.4 million registered voters, or about 70 percent of the state's voters, is crucial to Harris and the Democratic Party.

But since Republicans are also making gains there, the first numbers are increasing Democrats' concerns. As of Monday, 66,560 Democrats had advanced in Clark compared to 62,108 Republicans, a margin of just 4,000 votes. Another 42,621 ballots were cast by other voters.

Despite these early trends, many ballots still need to be cast before Election Day. With 11 days of early voting remaining, only 12.4 percent of Nevada's nearly two million registered voters had cast a ballot.

With Harris holding a razor-thin lead of 0.3 percent over Donald Trump in the latest FiveThirtyEight polling average, every vote could make a difference.

While Ralston said it was “too early to call it a trend,” he added that the party could face a serious challenge if Democrats fail to shore up support in Clark County.

“It's far from over, it's too early to call,” Ralston said, but added: “A few more days like this and the Democrats' bedwetting will reach epic proportions.”