Follow Elliott on the bubble as four riders face Roval elimination

The Round of 12 began with another spoiler as Ross Chastain took the checkered flag in Kansas. The field then raced to Talladega, where another non-playoff driver, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., stole all the glory and won the race. This means that no one can automatically advance to the Round of 8 by winning this round, but that doesn't mean no one is locked in.

Locked up or feeling good

William Byron actually scored enough points in the last two races to mathematically secure a spot, so he has nothing to worry about in Charlotte. While Christopher Bell at +57 and Kyle Larson at +52 aren't technically locked in, they are in a really strong position to move forward. You will see these drivers in the Round of 8, which is interesting as all three reached Championship 4 last year.

Just keep it clean

After his cautious approach backfired in Atlanta, Denny Hamlin did it again in Talladega, but this time it paid off big time. When more than half of the field fell on the back straight, he was far from chaos and thus collected a mountain of points. He now enters Charlotte at +30 to the cut line and just needs to avoid catastrophic setbacks this weekend. Alex Bowman at +26 and Ryan Blaney at +25 are in similar positions. Collect some stage points, finish the race and everything should be fine. However, history teaches us that it is never that easy in the end.

In the hot seat

Regular season champion Tyler Reddick is just +14 points above the elimination zone and NASCAR's most popular driver is in the same boat. Chase Elliott sits on the bubble at +13. And remember: it doesn't matter how many points you have if one of the four drivers below you wins the race. If you're a bubble pusher, you're out.

Luckily for Elliott, he not only won the Roval, but is also the only active driver to win it more than once. Reddick is also a very capable road racer with the second highest average finish at the Charlotte Roval as well as race wins at COTA, the Indy RC and Road America. At the end of the day, they could face each other on Sunday. Should a Briscoe or Cindric take the lead and the riders above those two don't get into trouble, you need to avoid being the rider on the chopping block. Because of this, Elliott and Reddick will be watching each other as much (if not more) than those behind them.

The two-time NASCAR Cup Series champion has a strange pattern he'd like to continue this year – he's had it in alternating years since the current format was introduced ('14, '16, '18, '20, '22). Made it to Championship 4. while I missed the rest of the time. Unfortunately, unlike those he chases, he hasn't had much success on road courses. He may have a pole and two top-five finishes at the Roval, but he'll need to put in his best performance yet to avoid elimination. Expect Logano to go for as many stage points as possible as he looks to close the gap on the chasing pack.

Joey Logano, Team Penske, Shell Pennzoil Ford Mustang

Photo by: Nigel Kinrade / NKP / Motorsport Images

The Trackhouse driver got into a bad situation and made it worse at Talladega when he crashed while trying to aggressively blend into the field after an early pass-through penalty put him a lap down. That's a points deficit that will be difficult to make up, especially with the class of riders right in front of him, but it's not all bad for Suarez. He is an excellent road racer and although he has had no success at the Roval, Trackhouse has seen a burst of speed recently and his teammate led half of the race at Watkins Glen. He also finds himself in a difficult situation where he has to decide whether chasing points is the right path or whether he should risk everything and go straight for victory. Unfortunately, Suarez and the other two remaining underdogs are at the bottom of the points table in the playoffs, so it would be quite a surprise if he could pull himself out of the elimination zone.

Daniel Suarez, Trackhouse Racing, Freeway Insurance Chevrolet Camaro

Photo by: Nigel Kinrade / NKP / Motorsport Images

Another Team Penske driver in danger and how different it could have been for the driver of the No. 2 Ford. He was in the lead late at Talladega and could have easily won the race, but a bad push instead caused him to spin out in the middle of the field. While he could still mathematically work his way there, his only real chance is to head straight for victory. He has never won a road race at the Cup level, which is a surprise. He has a background in road racing and five of his 13 Xfinity victories have come on tracks that run both left and right. He needs to dig deep and find a way to achieve this at cup level as quickly as possible or his playoffs are over.

Austin Cindric, Team Penske, Discount Tire Ford Mustang

Photo by: Gavin Baker / NKP / Motorsport Images

Perhaps the most unique story of the playoffs revolves around this driver. Stewart-Haas Racing is just weeks away from shutting down, but Briscoe won the regular season finale, giving them one last shot at NASCAR glory. With the entire four-car organization behind him, he defeated champions Martin Truex Jr. and Brad Keselowski to advance to this round. Unfortunately, things didn't go nearly as well here and luck wasn't on his side at Talladega. Like Cindric, he has to fight for the race win at the Roval. It's his only real hope of keeping this dream alive for SHR. Like Cindric, he is a driver who has shown promise on road courses in lower divisions, but he has yet to find victory lane at such tracks in the Cup Series. But if we're talking about a driver and a group that literally has nothing to lose, then there's no one better suited to it than this No. 14 team.

Chase Briscoe, Stewart-Haas Racing, Rush Truck Centers / Cummins Ford Mustang

Photo by: Nigel Kinrade / NKP / Motorsport Images

Playoff rankings for the round of 12 elimination race