Game 3 odds, tips, best bets

I had a hard time watching such a skilled and experienced Phillies team go down 2-0 in a division series.

The bats kept getting going with Nick Castellanos' walk-off single in Game 2, marking another tumultuous ride for the Mets over the last week.

That kind of attitude — born of a World Series fall followed by an NLCS loss — makes for classic baseball, as opposed to a magical Mets camaraderie, and those kinds of intangibles will never translate into playoff lines.

Heading into Game 3 at Citi Field on Tuesday, we expect a total of just seven runs.

Mets vs Phillies odds

Oddsmakers will always favor strong pitching over hitting in the postseason; The temperature drops, making it harder to hit home runs, and the fielding is just a little more energetic.

On paper, this should be the case between veterans Aaron Nola and Sean Manaea, although I still choose to tone down that prediction.

Nola is looking to pick up where he left off after a solid 2023 postseason run that resulted in a 2.35 ERA and 0.96 WHIP.

According to FanGraphs, his 2024 regular season saw a decrease in strikeout rate with an increase in walks per nine innings and pitching WAR (Wins Above Replacement).

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I'm also not convinced of Manaea's competency in the postseason, as his subpar track record continued last week in the start of Game 2 in the Wild Card round, resulting in six hits and two earned runs in five innings.

According to Statcast, Manaea's most vulnerable spot to batted balls is the bull's-eye center of the strike zone, and the Phillies were the second-best team to hit meatballs.

Additionally, of the 21 runs scored in this series, 15 came from the bullpen.

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Both the Mets and Phillies have scored more than the league average in weighted runs over the last two games, which takes external factors into account when measuring offensive production.

With the series still up for grabs, we're leaning on the one-upping-in-the-box score to carry on in this bloodthirsty rivalry.

THE GAME: Mets-Phillies Game 3 Over 7 Runs (-122, FanDuel)

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Sean Stangedi covers NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He focuses primarily on decisions that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.