Guardians vs. Tigers prop bets for ALDS Game 3

Prop Bet #1: Alex Cobb Under 2.5 Strikeouts

+126 on FanDuel

The Cleveland Guardians will hand the ball to right-hander Alex Cobb on Wednesday, who is expected to be a prime candidate to step back. In a limited campaign, Cobb posted a 2.76 ERA in three starts.

However, his underlying metrics suggest a precipitous decline is coming, as the right-hander has an xERA of 4.87 and ranks in the bottom half of the league in xBA, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. I want to address this likely regression by fading Cobb on the prop market, considering he ranks in the bottom quarter of the league in both whiff and strikeout rates.

While 2.5 is a small number, the 37-year-old will be on a short leash in Game 3 given how little he has thrown this season.

Prop Bet #2: Riley Greene Over 1.5 total bases

+143 at BetRivers

Another reason I want to leave Cobb out on Wednesday is that I don't trust his poor power numbers against some of the hitters in this Detroit Tigers lineup. I'll be backing two Detroit hitters in Game 3, starting with Riley Greene.

Greene is perhaps one of the most underrated power hitters in baseball. This season, he ranked in the 83rd percentile or higher in xSLG, average exit velocity, walk rate, and strike rate.

As I highlighted in the previous section, Cobb primarily struggles with average exit velocity and hard hit rate.

Additionally, Greene's numbers improve when he plays right-handed, as he boasts a .280 BA, .496 SLG, and .873 OPS against that hand.

Prop Bet #3: Kerry Carpenter Over 1.5 total bases

+148 at BetRivers

Following the trend of backing power hitters against Cobb, I'd also like to target Detroit's Kerry Carpenter in Game 3.

He just scored in Game 2 and should be able to achieve similar success against Cobb on Wednesday. This season, Carpenter posted a dominant .570 xSLG, a 17.7% walk rate and a 46.4% strike rate.

These are some of the best performance analytics in baseball, and he only continues to improve when faced with right-handed pitching. In 264 plate appearances against right-handers this season, Carpenter posted a BA of .305, a SLG of .631 and an OPS of .994.