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Harris and Trump are neck and neck in the battle for Latino and black voters

Posted on by Kennedy
Harris and Trump are neck and neck in the battle for Latino and black voters

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An exclusive USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll finds Kamala Harris and Donald Trump essentially tied heading into the final stages of the presidential campaign as Democrats struggle to capture strong enthusiasm among Latino and black voters.

The poll has Harris at 45% and Trump at 44%, a tighter race than the August poll. Then, following the Democratic National Convention, Vice President Harris led the former president by five percentage points, 48% to 43%.

“I don’t particularly like either candidate, but if I had to, I would vote for Donald Trump,” said Jacob Rossow, 24, a college student from Oklahoma City, saying it was a difficult decision. He was one of those interviewed. “I just feel like he's been more clear about his policies and his intentions. I’m still not sure about Kamala’s plan for the country.”

The poll of 1,000 likely voters, conducted on landlines and cellphones Oct. 14-18, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

By double digits, voters said Harris had not done enough to explain the specific policies she would pursue in office, 57% to 37%. Those who want to hear more include almost one in four, namely 23%, of their supporters.

In contrast, respondents were evenly split on whether Trump had done enough to explain his policies, with 49% “yes” and 48% “no.” Only 15% of his supporters want to know more about what he would do.

In the seven weeks between the two polls, Harris lost ground among Latino voters, who now support Trump 49% to 38%, and among black voters. They favor Harris 72% to 17%, a 55-point margin well below the Democrats' traditional margin.

The margins of error for the small subsamples of Latino and black voters are plus or 9 points – a possible shift of up to 18 points in one direction or the other – and other recent polls show Harris in a stronger position, including a lead at Hispanics.

In 2020, Democrat Joe Biden's victory was based on overwhelming support from both groups. A Pew Research Center analysis concluded he was supported by 92% of black voters and 59% of Latino voters.

But Trump has made a concerted effort to win the votes of Hispanic and black voters, particularly men, focusing on issues such as the economy and crime. His success in eroding the Democrats' typical advantage raised alarms in Harris' camp and prompted a rebuke of former President Barack Obama's rejection of black men who he said might be hesitant to vote for a woman .

Harris, who has been ramping up campaign rallies and ads targeting Latino and black voters in swing states, last week released a black economic agenda that included small business loans and a promise to legalize recreational marijuana use.

The overall ranking of candidates will continue to be determined by gender.

Trump leads among men, 53% to 37%, a mirror image of Harris' lead among women, 53% to 36%.

Who is the change candidate?

The poll produced some encouraging results for Harris.

She is now 46 percent to 44 percent ahead of Trump and is the candidate who could better bring about change – a decisive advantage given the great dissatisfaction with the country's development. She is favored by a double-digit majority of 48% to 31% as the candidate who can better bridge the country's political divisions.

“I strongly oppose Trump's economic concepts of a plan that includes tariffs because I have seen the devastation inflicted on the agricultural community in his first term,” said Erin Parker, 52, of Tangent, Oregon. A registered Republican who supports independence, she said it was easy to choose Harris because she thinks Trump's MAGA movement is “authoritarian” and “not healthy for our country.”

“The fact that she actually has policies — very important,” Parker said.

On issues, Harris has a 20-point lead on abortion (56% to 36%) and a 15-point lead on health care (54% to 39%).

But Trump edges Harris, 49% to 46%, as the candidate who would do better in providing strong leadership.

He continues to be seen as having more confidence in the economy, which is voters' top concern, by 10 percentage points, 53% to 43%. He is expected to do a better job on immigration by 51% to 44% and on foreign policy by 51% to 45%.

“We need to get back on track for people who can’t afford to buy their groceries; they can't afford gas in their cars; they are maxing out their credit cards just to feed their children,” said Pamela Anderson, 78, a Republican and retiree from Alabama who supports Trump. “And people living on Social Security — you know, we have an income, but the economy is completely depleted with the current inflation.”

“We completely skipped the tracks”

Most Americans are optimistic about the country's direction. By more than 2 to 1, 61 to 28 percent, respondents say the country is “on the wrong path.” But they don't agree on where to steer it.

“Absolutely the wrong way – totally out of control,” said Rhonda Wax, 63, who works at a travel agency in Murfreesboro, Tennessee. She longs for the days of Trump's leadership in economics and global affairs.

“We’re going in the wrong direction,” agreed Daniel Mori, 45, of New York City. A Republican who works in marketing, he plans to vote for Harris. His biggest concern is not the economy or foreign relations. “There is a worsening situation with both political parties pushing for greater division,” he said. “In the truest sense of the word, we are not taking a constructive approach to solving the problems in the country.”

Fear is greater today than it was four years ago, even as the COVID pandemic raged. Then voters were asked Ronald Reagan's classic political question: “Are you better off than you were four years ago?” − 48% to 33% said this was the case.

Compared to today, this outlook appears optimistic, despite encouraging economic news on jobs and growth. Between 44 and 39 percent of respondents to the new survey say they are worse off than they were four years ago.

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