Hurricane Milton on Wednesday afternoon: Larger, multiple tornadoes and landfall this evening

Wednesday afternoon, October 9, 2024

The latest update shows Hurricane Milton with winds of 130 mph, located about 150 miles southwest of Tampa. This is a weaker Category 3 storm that continues to decrease in intensity, with the strongest winds spreading over a larger area as it approaches land. It is moving at a speed of 16 miles per hour and is expected to make landfall between 11 p.m. and 2 a.m. There are some important things I hope you share with us.

The term “downgraded” intensity is misleading… I can’t say this enough:

Water and waves will bring back memories of the time on land when it was still Category 5. Whether it is Cat. 3 or Cat. 4 is irrelevant at this point. It will expand to cover a larger area.

The wind field has already expanded to 250 miles from the center.

I highlighted the eye landing south of Tampa. The worst will be south of landfall, but it will still be VERY BAD in and around Tampa. Even if they miss the worst climb, they may find themselves on the edge of the eyewall.

There will be some fluctuations along the way, but with the current route it looks like it will end up between Sarasota and Venice.

It will still be a hurricane Thursday morning as it leaves the East Coast toward the Atlantic.

In this report: satellite loops, landfall maps, local storm surge diagrams, live radar, new model maps and warnings.

Doppler radar at 2 p.m

Infrared satellite at 2:00 p.m. EDT

The eye was 150 miles from Tampa.

Driving northeast at 16 miles per hour…. It moves faster the closer it gets.

Wind damage

Hurricane force winds: Extend 30 miles from center
Tropical Storm Force Winds: Extend 250 miles from center.

The highest storm surge will occur on the landfall wall AND on the right/south side. New Surge cards can be found below.

TORNADO RISK

Multiple tornadoes will continue to occur across the state. Previously, there was one possible tornado near Miami in Dade County and two in western Broward County.

STORM ROUTE: Continuation with landing near Siesta Key and exit into the Atlantic near Melbourne. Crossing the state takes 10 to 12 hours.

Hurricane force winds could Carry the storm to the Atlantic coast.

National Hurricane Center SUMMARY AS OF 2:00 PM EDT

LOCATION…26.3N 84.0W
APPROXIMATELY 130 MI…210 KM W. FOOT. MYERS FLORIDA
APPROXIMATELY 150 MI…240 KM SW OF TAMPA, FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…130 MPH…215 KM/H
CURRENT MOTION…NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRINT…944 MB…27.88 INCHES

Visible satellite loop

IR satellite loop

LIVE RADAR widget

National Hurricane Center Forecast Track

Hyperlocal looks with rise heights below

There will be some fluctuations, but the region between Sarasota and Venice.

Tornado outlook

Tornadoes are common in tropical cyclones that make landfall. This can happen in the outer bands hundreds of kilometers from the center and has already happened today. This affects large parts of the state of Florida.

flooding

Saltwater flooding is a storm surge. Six inches of water can move a person, and 12 inches of water can move an SUV or truck. In the worst areas, 10 to 15 feet is forecast, extending well inland.

Freshwater flooding comes from the rain. Rainfall rates can be up to 3 inches per hour. The forecast calls for a total of 9 to 12 inches or more in the path and north of the eye track. Some of these areas are already 2 feet (24 inches) above annual rainfall and have been very wet over the past two weeks.

Forecast adjustment:

The change in visibility also shifted the location of landfall approximately 50 miles south… which could result in a dramatic change in storm surge expectations along the coast.

Below are NEW CLOSE-UPS of storm surge maps.

The trail still points just south of Tampa Bay

These local maps are a guide, NOT A PROMISE. This can still shift 30 to 50 miles in either direction.

Closer look at water level expectations

Southwest Florida: Rise more than 100 miles away

Storm surge forecast

Anna Maria Island, FL to Boca Grande, FL…10-15 feet
Anclote River, FL to Anna Maria Island, FL…8-12 feet
Tampa Bay…8-12 feet
Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL…8-12 feet
Charlotte Harbor…8-12 feet
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL…5-8 feet
Aripeka, FL to Anclote River, FL…3-5 feet
Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL…3-5 feet
Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA…3-5 feet
Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC…2-4 feet
Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL…2-4 feet
Dry Tortugas…2-4 feet
St. Johns River…2-4 feet

HAFS Model animation: Wednesday afternoon to Friday morning

This did a good job of tracking alignment.

Landfall forecast

This is more likely between 10:00 p.m. and 11:00 p.m.

GFS model landfall forecast

GFS model animation: Wednesday morning to Friday morning

Precipitation forecast

Freshwater flooding in excess of 10 to 14 inches is likely to occur along and north of the trail.

Models have a hard time with tropical rain bands and the results are often higher.

SUMMARY OF APPLICABLE MONITORING AND ALERTS:

A storm surge warning is in effect for…

* Florida's west coast from Flamingo north to Yankeetown, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay

* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the St. Johns River

A hurricane warning is in effect for…

* Florida's west coast from Bonita Beach north to the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay

* Florida's east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line north to Ponte Vedra Beach

A storm surge warning is in effect for…

* North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South Carolina

A hurricane warning is in effect for…

* Dry Tortugas

* Lake Okeechobee

* Florida's west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach

* Florida's east coast north from Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Marys River

* Florida's East Coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Palm Beach/Martin County Line

A tropical storm warning is in effect for…

* Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay

* Lake Okeechobee

* Florida's west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach

* Florida's west coast from north of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass

* Florida's east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Flamingo

* North of Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, to the Savannah River

* Extreme northwest of the Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, Abacos and Bimini

A tropical storm warning is in effect for…

* North of the Savannah River to South Santee River South Carolina

Review of the 2024 Atlantic tropical season so far:

Named Storms

Alberto June 19-20; Peak as a tropical storm
Beryl June 28th 11; Peaked as a Category 5 hurricane
Chris June 30th to July 1st; Peak as a tropical storm
Debby August 3rd to 9th; Peaked as a Category 1 hurricane
Ernesto August 12th to 20th; Peaked as a Category 2 hurricane
Francine September 9th to 12th; Peaked as a Category 2 hurricane
Gordon September 11th to 17th; Tropical storm
Helene September 24th to 27th; Category 4 hurricane. Landfall with winds of 140 mph
Joyce September 27-30; Tropical storm
Kirk September 29th to ; Category 4 hurricane: Ocean with winds of 145 mph
Leslie October 2nd to ; Category 1 hurricane
Milton October 5th to