JD Vance vs. Tim Walz is the rare vice presidential debate that really counts

“Nobody's coming to see you, Otis” is an iconic line from “The Temptations,” a 1998 NBC miniseries. The actor playing David Ruffin brags that the audience didn't pay for it, anyone to see anyone else in the group, but only Ruffin. Conventional wisdom holds that this logic could be applied to Tuesday's vice presidential debate between Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Ohio Sen. JD Vance.

In a “normal election,” a debate between the numbers 2 on the ballot would be interesting, but not statistically significant. The rule for a vice presidential debate is generally the same as in any election: stay at the forefront of the ticket's message, contrast with the challenger anchored in that message and, above all, do no harm. Conventional wisdom holds that people do not vote based on who the Democratic or Republican candidate has chosen as a possible governing partner. The name at the top of the ticket is crucial.

However, this is not a normal election and I disagree with conventional wisdom. Vice Presidents are important, and tonight's debate is pretty significant!

If the choice of nominees as potential government partners did not matter, there would be no reason to bring them together on stage before the election. Choosing a vice president is the first presidential-level decision a major party candidate makes. It is a statement of who they are and what their goals and legacy will be if elected president. By selecting millennial Vance, former President Donald Trump emphasized Trumpism, cementing it as a key pillar of the Republican party apparatus and the foundation of the next generation of Republicans.

By choosing Walz, Vice President Kamala Harris signaled that the Democratic tent is big and that she is serious about making her bold plans on child care, reproductive freedom and the economy a reality. Just look at what their vice presidential candidate has done in Minnesota when it comes to these issues.

Tonight's debate could be the last time voters hear from the campaigns in a forum where they are tasked with standing side by side and defending their plans. A literal split screen where both participants' comments take center stage. That alone raises the stakes.

Vance will have to answer for his trove of jokes on everything from comparing Trump to Hitler to racist conspiracy lies about the Haitian people in his home state, to name just two. Walz is asked to defend his record in Minnesota (because child nutrition is apparently too progressive) and his military service. No matter what the moderators ask, a candidate who is well prepared will answer the question and then quickly get out of the conversation about themselves and get back to the topics and their #1. This is not always easy, but it is crucial.

When we first sat down in 2020 to prepare for the debate with then-Sen. For Harris, we initially focused on making sure she knew what then-candidate Joe Biden had said publicly on each issue. It was important that she had a good understanding of his thoughts so that she knew where and how far to go when discussing a particular topic.

The last thing a campaign wants is for its running mate to spread unauthorized news.

When Vance sat down with my colleague Kristen Welker on “Meet the Press,” he stated emphatically that Trump would not enact a nationwide abortion ban. And yet, during Trump's second debate of the cycle, Trump responded to Vance's response on national television. Vance will want to avoid the same mistake tonight, but a big part of his role as vice president is speaking for the president. If Vance can't do that in a debate, why should he be able to do it in the White House?

For Walz, he has to walk the tightrope between attack dog and explainer. This is an area where many voters still say they want to know more about Harris' plans, so Walz needs to use his time wisely, finding opportunities to speak directly to people at home and explaining how a future Harris would be -Walz's government cuts would make a difference for families across the country. Much has been said about Walz not being an experienced debater, but remember, he was a high school teacher and football coach! One could say that he honed his oratorical skills in the lion's den.

In 2020, during Harris' debate prep, we had a lot of internal discussions about how to handle the age issue should it come up. Walz won't have that problem tonight. Harris turns 60 this month; But Vance will have to talk about why Americans should trust 78-year-old Donald Trump to be back behind the feisty desk, and whether he himself — a freshman senator with no legislative track record and no other political or government experience — would actually be willing to do so to lead the country when duty requires it.

While no one will be looking for Otis tonight, all political eyes will be on Tim Walz and JD Vance.