Karl-Anthony Towns Trade Shifts NBA Title Chances, Makes Knicks a 'Liability'

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The New York Knicks have pulled in their chips, reminiscent of Mike McDermott versus Teddy KGB in “Rounders.”

On Friday, Jon Krawczynski and Shams Charania brought news of an agreed trade which would send four-time All-Star Karl-Anthony Towns to the Knicks in exchange for Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo and a protected first-round pick from the Detroit Pistons (the deal is still being finalized).

The blockbuster trade not only changed the NBA landscape over the weekend, but also had repercussions from a betting perspective.

With the trade, the Knicks' chances of winning the NBA title have decreased from +900 to +700 at BetMGM (meaning a $10 bet would win $70 at the new odds).

New York now has the third-least chance of winning the title behind the Boston Celtics (+325) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (+675). The Knicks also have an overall win prediction of 54.5 at BetMGM, the third-highest win total in the league, again behind only the Celtics (58.5) and Thunder (56.5).

Following the trade news, New York overtook the Philadelphia 76ers in both the championship betting and Eastern Conference title odds.

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With the start of the season just weeks away, let's take a look at the trade-driven odds moves, current NBA betting odds and some insights from BetMGM.

NBA Championship Odds at BetMGM: Before trading / After trading

• Celtics: +310 / +325
• Knicks: +900 / +700
• 76s: +900 / +1000
• Timberwolves: +1100 / +1000

NBA Eastern Conference odds at BetMGM: Before trading/After trading

• Celtics: +160 / +170
• Knicks: +425 / +275
• 76s: +450 / +475
• Dollars: +725 / +900

Diving into the Timberwolves' massive decision. What it means in the short and long term, the vote of confidence in Naz Reid and the thing that derailed this deal. https://t.co/EuySG2JtvQ

— Jon Krawczynski (@JonKrawczynski) September 28, 2024

“The Knicks are our fifth-best chance to win the NBA championship,” said John Ewing, public relations manager for BetMGM. “They opened at +1600 and quickly saw their ratings decline in the offseason.

“The Knicks are also the best chance to win the Eastern Conference at BetMGM.”

Thomas Gable, sports betting director at The Borgata (a BetMGM operation in Atlantic City), told us that bettors were running to the counter to bet on New York to win it all.

“We normally take a lot of money from New York, and even before this trade, money was coming in,” Gable said. “The Knicks are our biggest liability to the NBA championship.”

New York has reached the Eastern Conference semifinals in two consecutive seasons. Can cities help them overcome the crisis?

The Athletics Zach Harper Grades distributed on big trade.

“While this is an increase in talent upfront where the Knicks were lacking, I am still confused as to why this is the case the move for the Knicks. Their floor is elevated, but I'm not sure they'll reach that higher ceiling. Towns will need to change the way he defends to give the Knicks a huge win. It also takes away any shred of financial flexibility Brunson gave them receive a discount with its renewal. Towns is signed through 2027 for $160 million and then has a $61 million player option for the 2027-28 season.”

Grade: B-

Required reading

John Hollinger: Why the KAT-for-Randle trade could upend the “best player” maxim

James L. Edwards III: Why acquiring Karl-Anthony Towns isn't a guarantee the Knicks will do better

(Photo by Stephen Maturen / Getty Images)