Kawhi Leonard's recent injury setback underscores the value of the draft picks the Sixers acquired from the Clippers as part of the James Harden transfer

The latest in a long line of ominous medical updates about Los Angeles Clippers star Kawhi Leonard came to light on Thursday afternoon, when ESPN's Shams Charania and Ohm Youngmisuk reported that Leonard would be out indefinitely at the start of the 2024-25 regular season will be out. He continues to care for his often injured right knee.

Leonard, 33, has missed an average of 38 games per year over the last seven regular seasons. Additionally, the six-time All-Star and two-time NBA Finals MVP has only appeared in four of the Clippers' last 19 playoff games. Leonard's ability to keep up physically is highly questionable, further clouding the already bleak long-term outlook for the Clippers.

Few teams have as unclear a direction as the Clippers as they move into their brand new Intuit Dome: Even before Leonard's recent injury setback, they appeared to be short on talent to compete for anything other than a play-in tournament appearance in a crowded field Western Conference to compete. The departure of Paul George, who joined the Sixers in free agency in the summer, was the nail in the coffin in the Clippers' fight for the championship.

Even making the play-in tournament will be a big challenge if Leonard isn't constantly available, as this is now a team built around 35-year-old James Harden, who will likely have to carry a huge offensive load , which he is no longer fit to handle (and Harden himself is far from a sure bet to stay healthy for a full 82-game season).

The Clippers aren't talented enough to seriously compete, but they're very old and very expensive – Leonard, for example, is under contract for three more seasons and has a total value of just under $150 million – but they're also short on options to meaningfully improve their long-term reputation.

In addition to a future MVP candidate in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – a promising player then entering his second season – the Clippers traded a massive collection of draft picks and pick swaps to the Oklahoma City Thunder for George before the season 2019/20 season to sign. They still have a lot of debt to pay off with the Thunder, who have become a real title contender over time Gilgeous Alexander. They also traded a future unprotected first-round pick and a lightly protected trade right to the Sixers early last season to acquire Harden.

Take a look at the status of the Clippers' first-round picks over the next five games Designs:

Not ideal!

If the Sixers are capable of winning a championship with their current core, it will happen in the next two or three years. By the time the first pick the Clippers owe the Sixers is delivered, three more drafts will have been received. Given the Sixers' supposed all-in mentality, it would be natural for the Sixers to be willing to part with the two assets they acquired from the Clippers to improve their roster, right?

Not quite.

There's a complex rationale here that goes far beyond the mere value of the picks and their potential significance.

As long as the Sixers hold on to these Clippers picks, skeptics will compare the situation to the Miami Heat's once-highly prized 2021 first-round pick, which lured the Sixers away from Mikal Bridges before becoming a key piece in the Tobias Harris trade as of the year Come 2021, it no longer became a particularly valuable commodity after a resurgence in Miami. But a situation like this – the Heat were able to get back into contention because they found a way to add a superstar in Jimmy Butler despite having negative cap space – is an anomaly.

The Clippers expect to have plenty of financial flexibility through 2027-28, so there's always the possibility they can lure a star free agent to Los Angeles. But you also have to create the right infrastructure so that such an actor finds his organization attractive beyond its location. Franchise-changing talent will be judged by the team success they can achieve. These days, no star will willingly join a team without the opportunity to become a championship contender. The Clippers still have a long way to go to reach that status.

Determining whether or not the Sixers' picks from the Clippers should be available in trade talks requires understanding what type of players the Sixers can trade for.

The Sixers are on the NBA's first frontcourt in 2024-25 and could be in at least each of the next two seasons. As a frontcourt team, the Sixers cannot increase their salary in any trade. For example, if they were to give out $5 million in salary in a trade, the Sixers wouldn't be able to get a penny more than $5 million in return.

These rules and the nature of the team's future cap list combine to significantly limit their ability to acquire star talent. If the Sixers could add a fourth legitimate star alongside Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and George, it would be easy to swap the Clippers picks.

With these three stars all on long-term max contracts, the Sixers simply aren't in a position to take on another big deal without actually trading Embiid, Maxey or George. At the upcoming trade deadline, for example, their spending power in terms of absorbing salary will likely be capped at around $12 million, perhaps closer to $15 million if rookie guard Jared McCain is involved.

Generally, the only high-profile players in this salary range are those on rookie contracts, which almost never come up in trade discussions. There's always a small group of excellent role players in team-friendly deals in this area – New Orleans' Herb Jones and Minnesota's Donte DiVincenzo currently stand out – but the Pelicans and Timberwolves have no incentive to trade valuable, versatile, two-way role players under long-term control.

The Sixers have other draft picks available to trade – they control most of their future picks and have an additional first-rounder in 2026, the least favorable of all first-round picks from the Clippers, Thunder and Houston Rockets. These other picks will have enough value to help the Sixers add the type of players they will be looking for in the winter.

Of course, there's also the elephant in the room: At some point, the Sixers will have to live without Embiid. The centerpiece of the Sixers franchise will be 31 years old by the end of the 2024-25 season, and he's not a player anyone would give a strong vote of confidence in maintaining dominance into his mid-to-late 30s. By the 2028 NBA Draft – when the Sixers' first picks are announced by the Clippers – George will be a 39-year-old coming off a season in which he earned more than $56.5 million.

If things do indeed take a turn for the worse with the Sixers, retaining two years of lifeline chances thanks to the Clippers' potential futility could prove to save the franchise's very long-term future.

It's easy to say that a team should be “all in” and therefore all of its long-term assets should be fair in trade discussions. But the entire context surrounding these decisions — the uphill battle the Clippers face again, who the Sixers can actually add if they capitalize on those two strengths, and the Sixers' own uncertain future at the end of the decade — makes it so a much trickier and more complex decision for the organization.

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