Key storylines: Why this season's Rookie of the Year race is still up in the air

Top picks Zaccharie Risacher of the Hawks and Alex Sarr of the Wizards will look to clinch the Kia Rookie of the Year award.

• Get NBA League Pass TODAY >

We're counting down 24 key storylines for the 2024-25 NBA season. Our senior analysts will analyze a new topic each day as we help you prepare for opening night on October 22nd.

Here's the plot No. 6:

Here's why this season's Kia Rookie of the Year race is still open:

A good rule of thumb when trying to gauge how open the race for Kia Rookie of the Year might be in an NBA season is: “Was there a consensus on the No. 1 pick in last June's draft?” “

Makes sense, right? If you have a safe and straightforward top pick, that player will most likely prove his worth, if not from day one, then certainly from year one. Any general manager or president of basketball operations who wins the lottery and spends the oh-so-coveted contribution to his vision of the team's future hopes he's made the proverbial choice. That is, the best player in this year's class, also known as the Rookie of the Year.

When you sign a franchise player like Patrick Ewing, Shaquille O'Neal, Tim Duncan, or even an 18-year-old LeBron James, you can expect that player to compete in the league and outshine all other rookies. ROY? Most of these guys have MVP awards and Hall of Fame awards waiting for them.

And yet…here’s a sobering statistic. Since the league switched to its current draft lottery format in 1986, there have been 38 No. 1 picks. Only 18 (46%) won Rookie of the Year. These franchise people don't come around very often.

He has yet to reveal whether there was one among the 58 candidates selected in the 2024 draft. There was no No. 1 consensus. No one has said before or since that Atlanta's Zaccharie Risacher, Washington's Alex Sarr or Houston's Reed Sheppard is this year's Chris Webber, Allen Iverson or Victor Wembanyama.

This season's rookie race might be more like 2021-22, when Toronto's Scottie Barnes rose from No. 4 to secure the award ahead of the players selected ahead of him (Cade Cunningham, Jalen Green and Evan Mobley). The vote was close — Barnes by 378 points, Mobley by 363 — and it could happen again next spring.

Remember that there are always other factors that come into play. Injuries are at the top of the list. Cunningham was almost certainly the No. 1 pick in 2021, but the Detroit guard got injured and ended up at third for ROY. When Memphis' Ja Morant took home the trophy in 2020, he got an assist from Zion Williamson – everyone's automatic No. 1 pick in this class – when the New Orleans nose tackle was used just 24 times.

Another variable is the suitability of a team's rotation, as well as the ambitions of the bosses for this newcomer. When San Antonio's Gregg Popovich seemed disinterested again last season, the ROY race between Victor Wembanyama and Oklahoma City's Chet Holmgren remained surprisingly close for much of the year.

The Frenchman then secured first place in the 99 and easily won the award.

There is no Wemby in the class of 2024, maybe not even a Paolo Banchero (not a consensus No. 1 pick, but a runaway ROY winner in 2022-23). Look for many risers and fallers on the Kia Rookie Ladder in 2024-2025.

* * *

Steve Aschburner has been writing about the NBA since 1980. You can email him here his archive here And Follow him on X.

The views on this site do not necessarily reflect the views of the NBA, its clubs or Warner Bros. Discovery.