Maui weather forecast for October 14, 2024: Maui now

Photo credit: Jeni Ji Cousins

West side

Today: Mostly sunny with a few showers. Highs: 80 to 87. East wind gusting to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with a few showers. Lows: 70 to 77. East wind gusts up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tuesday: Airy. Partly sunny with a few showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with a few showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 87. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

South side

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs around 89. Northwest winds gusting to 10 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers after midnight. Lows 69 to 77. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 89. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

North bank

Today: Mostly cloudy. Airy. Showers in the morning, isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs will be between 80 and 85 degrees near the coast and around 69 degrees near 5,000 feet. East winds gusting up to 20 miles per hour. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Airy. Numerous showers in the evening, then showers after midnight. Lows range from around 73 near the coast to around 54 near 5,000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Airy. Numerous showers in the morning, isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs range from 79 to 84 near the coast and around 67 near 5,000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Airy. Mostly sunny with a few showers. Highs: 83 to 90. East wind gusting to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 72. East wind as high as 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Airy. Partly sunny with a few showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs: 82 to 90. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Inland

Today: Mostly sunny. Airy. Scattered showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 65 at the visitor center to around 68 at the summit. East winds gusting up to 25 miles per hour. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Airy. Partly cloudy with a few showers. Lows around 50 at the visitor center to around 47 at the summit. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny. Windy. Scattered showers. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 70 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph, increasing to 30 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy. Airy. Showers in the morning, isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs will be between 80 and 85 degrees near the coast and around 69 degrees near 5,000 feet. East winds gusting up to 20 miles per hour. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Airy. Numerous showers in the evening, then showers after midnight. Lows range from around 73 near the coast to around 54 near 5,000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Airy. Numerous showers in the morning, isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs range from 79 to 84 near the coast and around 67 near 5,000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs: 74 to 82. East wind gusting to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers after midnight. Low around 68. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening, becoming increasingly light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Sunny in the morning, mostly cloudy with a few showers in the afternoon. Highs: 74 to 82. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny with a few showers. Highs 71 to 91. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with a few showers. Lows 61 to 77. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. Airy. Scattered showers in the morning. Highs 71 to 90. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Summary

Moderate trade winds will continue today with increasing shower activity as a weak low bed moves westward across the Hawaiian Islands. Trade winds will strengthen throughout the night as the subtropical ridge forms north of the state. Shower activity will decrease Tuesday through Wednesday and then increase Thursday through Saturday as another weak disturbance moves through the island chain.

discussion

This morning's satellite image shows a low trough moving west along the island chain. The lowest cloud bands are currently densest over the islands of Maui County and Oahu. These clouds will move into Kauai over the next few hours. Local radar images show that numerous showers are developing within this unstable cloud band. Additional unstable clouds lie directly east of the Big Island and are expected to lead to increasing shower trends on the east and southeast slopes later this morning.
The American (GFS) Model 700 mb Streamlines shows a low easterly wave moving west through the islands today. The low pressure of this trough will enhance shower activity in the local region, especially over windward and mountainous areas. The heavier showers will result in brief rainfall over the drier leeward slopes of each island even into the evening hours. As stability returns, drier conditions will then quickly spread from east to west. Another low point will move into the Eastern Isles on Thursday, causing shower trends to briefly strengthen again across the state through Saturday. A weak high low drifting just east of the state may also help create unstable clouds in the trade wind flow just upstream of the island chain.
Moderate trade winds will increase today and it will become locally windy through Thursday as the subtropical ridge strengthens slightly. Expect a slight decrease in trade winds Friday through next weekend with a hybrid increase in daytime sea breeze winds along slopes sheltered in the western terrain.

aviation

Moderate business is expected until midweek. SHRA and low cigs are possible on windward and mauka locations, with some island spillover on leeward sides. Short MVFR conditions are expected in SHRA, otherwise VFR should prevail.
AIRMET Sierra for Mtn Obsc applies to windward locations of all islands. Conditions should improve later this morning.

marine

The easterly trade winds are beginning to strengthen to a moderate to locally strong area today, while the ridge strengthens again to the north. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been issued for most windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island through Tuesday. Zones after Tuesday may vary as some zones may need to be expanded and others removed from the SCA. Business is expected to decline again by the end of the week.
The current moderate to strong northerly swell with a medium to long period will continue to increase during the morning hours, peak this evening and slowly fade away by the end of the week. A High Surf Advisory (HSA) has been issued for all north-facing shores across the state from today until 6am Tuesday.
Surf along the west-facing coast will remain slightly elevated today through Tuesday under the influence of the northerly swell. Eastward coastal wind waves remain relatively small but will gradually increase on Tuesday in response to strengthening trade. Areas on the East Coast exposed to the northerly swell will also be affected by this swell. Surf along the south facing coast remains light today as the southerly swell slowly subsides throughout the day. Surf looks to remain light for the rest of the week, with southerly swells in the background.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory from 6:00 a.m. this morning until 6:00 p.m. HST Tuesday for the North Shore of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui and Big Island.
Small Boat Advisory from 6 a.m. this morning through 6 p.m. HST Tuesday for most of Hawaii's eastern coastal waters.

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Data courtesy of NOAA.gov