MLB Playoffs: ALCS Game 5 Preview, Analysis

After two exciting duels in Cleveland, the New York Yankees are just one win away from their first World Series since 2009. The Yankees needed two fairly routine games in the Bronx to start this series, but the Cleveland Guardians bounced back at Progressive Field: After a shocking walkoff win on Thursday, the Guardians rallied from an early deficit to tie the score on Friday against the Yankees, but couldn't hold on in the ninth.

Can the Yankees secure their spot? Will the Guardians push this series back to the Bronx? We'll provide you with pre-match predictions, live updates and analysis, followed by our takeaways after the final pitch.

New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians, 8:08 p.m. ET

Pitching matchup: Tanner Bibee (0-1, 3.60 ERA) vs. Carlos Rodon (1-1, 4.66)

What do the Yankees need to do to secure their spot in the World Series?

Jorge Castle: For starters, a solid start from Rodon. Rodon had an outstanding performance in Game 1, holding the Guardians to one run in six innings. He collected nine strikeouts and generated 25 whiffs. Most importantly, he controlled his emotions. He admitted this was an issue in his ALDS start against the Kansas City Royals. He has said that he learned from that experience and that he will have to apply that lesson on the road for the first time this postseason.

Bradford Doolittle: The Yankees are a more talented team. Even if nothing has to happen, their ideal formula remains the same: grab an early lead to put the Guardians in a reactive mode rather than running into their team's bullpen when there is a line to protect. Bibee didn't fare well in Game 2 and took three days of rest for the first time since his college days. New York can completely take the air out of the Guardians with a few early runs.

Buster Olney: Just keep hitting big with a lineup built on performance. Recently, Giancarlo Stanton took early batting practice on the field away from a pitching machine to watch the ball, see how it spins – slider away – and in this round he was joined on the field by Aaron Judge. The way Stanton and Judge are doing it, maybe all the Yankees will start doing it.

What do the Guardians have to do to stay alive?

Castle: How about building a comfortable lead against Rodon and staying out of their A-side bullpen? Another close game would put more strain on their best substitutes. We've already seen Emmanuel Clase and Cade Smith falter. Rodon was dominant in Game 1, but the Guardians were one of the best teams in baseball against left-handed pitchers during the regular season. They defeated Tarik Skubal, the majors' top starter and left-hander, in Game 5 of the ALDS. You are able to place a wrong number or two early on.

Doolittle: For Cleveland, it's the opposite of the Yankees' plan – and that means Bibee has to come out with the point. The first time, he seemed upset about his short outing, even though his numbers wouldn't have justified a longer leash. A chip on your shoulder isn't always the worst thing in a competitive situation. So if he can string together a few zeroes and the Guardians can score a run, they can reach their bullpen. If Jose Ramirez and/or Josh Naylor can't finally put together a big game, it will be difficult to make that run happen.

Olney: Their relievers need to become dominant again as they have been the backbone of the Guardians all season. During the regular season, Emmanuel Clase and Cade Smith faced 559 batters and dropped a total of three homers – and in Games 3 and 4, Clase and Smith gave up three homers to Giancarlo Stanton (2) and Aaron Judge (1). Given the lack of depth in Cleveland's rotation, the Guardians can't win without excellent performances from their bullpen.

What has been the most impressive achievement for you so far?

Castle: Since Brad and Buster are about to sing Stanton's praises, I'll go with Gleyber Torres. The Yankees' leadoff hitter has reached base in the first inning in all four games and in seven of the team's eight postseason games. He hit a single in Game 1, a double in Game 2, a walk in Game 3 and a single in Game 4. Juan Soto followed that single in Game 4 with a two-run home run to give New York a quick lead . Otherwise, the Yankees largely missed early scoring opportunities. But Torres kept the pressure on.

Doolittle: Giancarlo Stanton, without a doubt. Cade Smith doesn't give up on homer. This version of Stanton touched him deeply. Emmanual Clase doesn't give up home runs. This version of Stanton touched him deeply. He has filled the void left by Judge's production deficit.

Olney: Stanton had so many ups and downs in his time with the Yankees, so many injuries, so many waves of talk show callers begging the organization to buy out his contract and move on. But his performances in the postseason have been almost consistently excellent, and in this series he's doing his damage against great pitchers. With his home run in Game 4, he tied Babe Ruth and Aaron Judge for career postseason home runs; his slugging percentage in the playoffs is over .650. Remarkable.

Who will win tomorrow – and who will win the series?

Castle: I picked the Yankees in six games, so I'm sticking with it. The Guardians found some success against Carlos Rodon in their second attempt to catch a flight to New York for Game 6 on Monday.

Doolittle: Cleveland wins Game 5 by a low score, sending the series back to Yankee Stadium. But I still believe New York will win the series. The Guardians have proven resilient in an October in which that term has become a buzzword. That will earn them another game.

Olney: Think of Tanner Bibee as the headlamp-wearing guard, because he's the only player on this team capable of leading them out of this 3-1 deficit. He needs to pitch great and give them at least five or six innings – and he showed in the regular season that he's capable of doing that. But Soto, Judge and Stanton are all fully activated now, and I would be surprised if the Guardians extended this series to six games.

Live updates

Tune in at game time for live updates and analysis on Game 5.