“MNF” odds, tips, best bets

The reigning Super Bowl champion Chiefs are off to a 4-0 start, but with an average lead of just five points, they have shown some chinks in their armor.

On Monday night they will host a Saints team that started red hot with two impressive wins but has since suffered two straight losses.

The Chiefs enter the match as 5.5-point favorites, with the over/under standing at 43 points. Let’s dive into this Monday Night Football matchup and offer the best bet.

When the Saints have the ball

It was refreshing to see how Klint Kubiak orchestrated the Saints offense this year.

After New Orleans had one of the league's most archaic, weakening and boring offenses in 2023, Kubiak has breathed new life through misdirection, varied personnel and a heavy dose of playful passing.

Derek Carr has been an extremely productive passer in game action throughout his career, but the Saints used him the least in the league last season. It was amazing, and Kubiak righted the ship with the third-highest play-action rate in the league this year. Predictably, Carr has bounced back to rank first in Pro Football Focus passing grades and fourth in EPA+CPOE.

Steve Spagnuolo's Chiefs defense ranks fourth in blitz rate, which could cause problems against a Saints offensive line whose PFF ranks 29th in pass blocking. However, Carr has broken up opponents this year with nine yards per pass attempt, which ranks sixth in the NFL.

Also expect heavy press coverage, which could lead to big bets for wide receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed.

When the Chiefs have the ball

I expected a rebound season from Patrick Mahomes after a statistically poor year in 2023, but the losses of Rashee Rice, Isiah Pacheco and Marquise Brown put this offense in trouble. They now have a bottom-five qualifying group led by Travis Kelce, who is on the decline, and freshman Xavier Worthy, who has yet to prove himself as more than just a gadget player and a deep threat.

It's hard to overstate the significance of losing Rice, who had begun to develop into one of the NFL's premier receivers.

Mahomes ranks just 13th in EPA+CPOE, and it's difficult to imagine any improvement in the short term, especially against a Saints defense that ranks in the top five in virtually every advanced passing metric.

Final verdict

Nick Giffen, a prediction analyst for Action Network, believes there is a huge luck gap associated with this game. Since 2018, unlucky teams are 122-68-6 (62.9 percent) against the spread in regular-season games (excluding last week).

We also support strong trends for both starting quarterbacks in this game.

Carr is considered the underdog at 55-46-1 (55 percent) against the spread (ATS), while Mahomes is considered the three-plus point favorite at 38-43-3 ATS (47 percent).

Betting on the NFL?

The Saints are the better team in terms of DVOA this season, ranking third, while the Chiefs are ninth.

I'll back the underrated road team and ignore the Chiefs, who haven't been able to gain a lead over anyone this season.

Best bet: Saints +5.5 (-105, FanDuel)

Why you should trust New York Post Betting

Jacob Wayne covers college football and the NFL for the New York Post. It is up 84.5 units in both sports, with an ROI of 6.27%.