More and more Republicans are voting early, helping break records. Nearly 19 million ballots have been cast so far

With the former president Donald Trump's Encouragingly, Republicans are voting early again, flocking to in-person voting ahead of Election Day and helping push the national tally to nearly 19 million.

Early voter turnout is breaking records in swing states like Georgia and North Carolina.

The GOP hopes this surge in early voting will fix a mechanical problem that some in the party blame for costing it the 2020 presidential election and key races in 2022. Campaigns typically want their voters to cast their ballots before Election Day so they can focus their resources on getting more fringe voters to the polls at the last minute.

Republicans excelled at this before Trump pivoted against early in-person and mail-in voting in 2020 wild conspiracies about the process and convinced his supporters to wait until Election Day to cast their votes. But the party is again urging its voters to cast their ballots early, and the former president is doing so too largely supports the change.

“I tell everyone to vote early,” Trump said last week on a podcast hosted by conservatives Dan Bonginowho widely disseminated false information about early voting and the 2020 election.

Republicans appear to be responding. In Nevada, where Democrats had relied for decades on solid early voting to counter the GOP on Election Day, about 6,000 more Republicans than Democrats had actually voted early this year as of Tuesday, according to data Associated Press research.

However, it is unclear what this means for the election. Early voting data only shows whether voters are registered with a party, not who they are voting for, and the number of early voters can change from day to day as more people vote early.

Democrats' early voting surge in 2020 was largely a response to a pandemic that no longer exists, distorting historical comparisons. And what may seem like demographic trends in early voting may suddenly disappear when Election Day votes are taken into account.

Furthermore, the voting process is still very early. The last of the seven swing states, Wisconsinbegan early voting Tuesday morning, and the 17.4 million voters who have already cast ballots this year represent only about 11% of the total number of ballots in the 2020 presidential election. Parties can build leading positions in early voting and then watch them disappear on election day because all their supporters have already voted and the other side hasn't.

“As far as I can tell, Democrats are still pushing for more early voting. It’s just a smaller disadvantage for Republicans,” said Michael McDonald, a political scientist at the University of Florida who follows early voting closely. However, McDonald cautioned, “We don't know yet whether this is a moving piece of furniture or an additional strength for the Republicans.”

One thing is clear: The return to nonpartisan early voting has helped break records. North Carolina And Georgia Both saw record turnout on their first day of in-person early voting despite the destruction caused by Hurricane Helene, and turnout has also spread to states that are not competitive at the presidential level, such as South Carolina, which reported its own record as of Early voting opened Monday.

James Blair, the political director of Trump's campaign, said the data shows more low-propensity voters are casting ballots early than those who might be expected to support Vice President Kamala Harris.

“The starting point is that we are in a strong position,” Blair said.

The Harris campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Republicans still seem to have an aversion to mail-in voting. They have improved their share of mail-in voting in several states, but still lag behind Democrats. That's particularly true in Pennsylvania, the biggest election win among the seven swing states and a state that traditionally doesn't have early in-person voting options.

As of Tuesday, the Democrats there had cast around 350,000 more postal ballots than the Republicans. But Republicans are gaining ground by voting early in person in most battleground states.

Still for years Sowing conspiracy theories about early voting and postal voting have taken a toll on the conservative electorate. At Elon Musk's first solo event When he endorsed Trump last week, he encouraged the crowd to vote early, a request to which some in the audience responded with a reply: “Why?”

Despite those reservations, some analysts said Republicans would rather have early voting parity than not.

John Couvillon, a Louisiana pollster who normally works for the GOP and closely tracks early voting, noted that Democrats have dominated early voting in recent election cycles. Their current position, Couvillon said, “is the equivalent of losing three touchdowns at halftime and assuming you can score four touchdowns in the second half.”

Tom Bonier, a Democratic data analyst, claimed that everyone expected Republicans to return to early voting and close gaps left by the pandemic. He said he wasn't worried.

“I’m impressed that the Democratic numbers are so strong,” he said.

The key takeaway, Bonier said, is that the high turnout suggests an enthusiastic electorate on both sides.

“If one side thought the other side would stay home in this election, that’s obviously not the case,” he said.

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An earlier version of this story incorrectly attributed a quote to Donald Trump that said, “You have to vote, and you have to go to the polls before Election Day because they're going to try to keep you home on Election Day,” the statement said was made at a Trump event in North Carolina on Monday by Trump adviser Peter Navarro, not Trump.