NFL Week 6 fantasy football lineup decisions: Josh Allen, Wan'Dale Robinson and the Patriots' offense

Fantasy football managers think about almost everything. They often need a calm, measured voice of reason to remind them of what makes sense.

Take a deep breath. It's fantasy football. Make practical decisions about lineups, trades, and food for the tailgating party and everything will work out. Try to enjoy the ride. You wouldn't believe what fantasy managers overthink. Well, you are (presumably) a fantasy manager. Okay, maybe you would.

While every star quarterback has been inferior to fantasy managers so far, we shouldn't equate Mahomes' performance with Allen's development. To recap: Mahomes hasn't scored 20 PPR points in a game since last Thanksgiving. He's averaging 14.2 PPR points per game this season, which is worse than the Saints' Derek Carr and just ahead of Broncos rookie Bo Nix, who plays in 9% of ESPN leagues.

Meanwhile, Allen was the No. 1 fantasy quarterback in Weeks 1 and 3. He didn't come close to that level in the other weeks – he completed just 9 of 30 passes against the Texans last week! – but at least we get to see how great he can be and lead fantasy teams. These were two of the top three quarterbacks in most fantasy leagues, along with the Ravens' Lamar Jackson, who no one complains about.

If you asked most fantasy managers what worried them about Allen, most people would point to the turnover. Allen threw 18 interceptions last season, second to then-commander and current Seahawks backup Sam Howell, but we didn't care because Allen was also fourth in passing yards, tied for fifth in passing touchdowns and had 15 rushing touchdowns is quite an achievement. Through five games this season, Allen ranks 22nd in passing yards and has two rushing touchdowns. He's barely thrown an interception, which is wild since 34 other QBs have thrown one, and not at all consistent with his history.

While Mahomes has been underwhelmed but appropriately shorthanded every week, Allen has been the epitome of the all-or-nothing fantasy QB so far. We're counting him in our top 10 for this Monday against the Jets. However, will he score 30 fantasy points or just 10? We believe Allen is worth the risk. Sure, I've ranked some players ahead of him that I wouldn't have thought of a month ago, like Kirk Cousins ​​and Jayden Daniels, but that risk comes from the shocking rankings.

In an odd way, this is a bit like Steelers QB Justin Fields – although the comparisons should end there – another runner with a high statistical ceiling, who outscored Allen in Weeks 2, 4 and 5: The point variance is pretty big. It's not for Mahomes that makes us sad (and is bye this week), but at least he's providing double-digit fantasy points every week. Allen didn't do that. Based on the upside potential, we seem to be comfortable with some divergence and the upside potential remains.

Notice how this is other Giants WR performs

We all recognize how great Giants rookie WR Malik Nabers is, but we've been too slow to respond to third-year option Wan'Dale Robinson. I wrote about the Giants earlier this week and pointed out that QB Daniel Jones isn't the same statistical guy from the last two seasons, but Nabers isn't the only reason. Robinson also plays a key role, and perhaps few realize how special his role has become.

Nabers and Robinson each rank in the top five in team target percentage, showing the team lacks receiving depth when both are active, but they don't get there in the same way. No other offense has a pair of players below them Top 20 in this metric. With Nabers absent in Week 5 in Seattle, Robinson did not post greater volume or better stats. He just did his normal thing and we all scored 13.8 points per game.

The team target percentage tells us which quarterbacks have found favor with certain receivers, and also gives us hope for some of the struggling quarterbacks, like Steelers starter George Pickens, the Panthers' Diontae Johnson and Chargers rookie Ladd McConkey. There were no surprises among last year's leaders (Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, AJ Brown). The only team that had a pair of pass catchers – as it could be a tight end or a running back, although it never is – in the top 20 was the Buccaneers with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Maybe they'll come there again.

However, Robinson's value in non-PPR formats is much different. Entering this week, he's on pace for 108 receiving yards, which is great (only six guys caught 108 passes last season), but only 782 receiving yards, which isn't the case (43 guys hit that mark). It's pretty difficult to catch so many passes and gain so few yards, but Robinson averages just 4.9 yards per target and a paltry 7.2 yards per catch. The latter number ranks 125th out of 141 wide receivers, and the only wide receiver with a lower average is the Browns' Elijah Moore, who receives fewer than half of the receivers. Last season, 23 players caught 80 passes. Only six of those 23 not over 1,000 receiving yards, all of which were tight ends you're familiar with.

What Robinson is doing is valuable – in PPR leagues – but also somewhat misleading. The Giants have made this 5-foot-10, 185-pound guy their tight end, their version of Evan Engram or TJ Hockenson from last season. There's nothing empirically wrong with that if it works and rejuvenates the quarterback and offense, and it could continue. But we should be clear about this, because what Robinson is doing doesn't have a statistical upward trend either Wide receiver. In a strange way, he's the wide receiver version of the safe but disappointing Mahomes. Robinson arrived with less fanfare. Enjoy these tight end numbers.

Don’t assume the Patriots’ offense will rest

On the surface, it seems like the Patriots are putting rookie QB Drake Maye in exactly the tough situation they wanted to avoid. Veteran Jacoby Brissett started the first five weeks, barely threw the ball and was constantly under pressure from opposing defenses. The Patriots have lost four games in a row. Starting Maye against a strong Texans pass rush seems strange. How can the No. 3 pick in the draft be successful this week and over the next few months?

Maye's chance of success for fantasy purposes is low, but for others around him it is higher. The offensive line remains, well, offensive, but Maye has a big body with a strong arm and he rushed for more than 1,100 yards and 16 touchdowns in his final two seasons at North Carolina. He can throw. Patriots rookie WR Ja'Lynn Polk was expected to be one of the most frequently added wide receivers, but he remains available in nearly 90% of ESPN standard leagues. WR DeMario Douglas and TE Hunter Henry also look better, at least with the threat of a downfield passing game. Brissett averaged 5.2 yards per attempt, second-worst among qualified QBs (second-worst to Deshaun Watson, of course).

Maye is a must in Superflex formats. All sensible quarterbacks are, especially in these bye weeks, but there are notable benefits here. No, he probably won't perform like Jayden Daniels, but we also need to stop comparing all rookie quarterbacks. Daniels is clearly special, just like CJ Stroud was last season. Caleb Williams of the Bears could be it. The Panthers' Bryce Young may not be, but even as a rookie he made WR Adam Thielen fairly relevant in fantasy during the first half of last season. Even in a challenging situation, Maye could thrive, but watch Polk, Douglas and Henry as well as RB Rhamondre Stevenson improve as well.

Those concerned about Saints WR Chris Olave's performance shouldn't necessarily view Derek Carr's injury as a positive, but not a negative either. Spencer Rattler wasn't the high pick that Maye was, but he can throw the ball down the field. Arm strength isn't an issue, but decision making might be. Carr has outscored WR Rashid Shaheed this season, but Olave has also averaged a career-high in yards per target. He just wasn't getting enough targets. Maybe that will change if Rattler plays, or maybe Alvin Kamara will get 30 rushing attempts. Be open to the potential here. Defeat Maye in Superflex against Rattler, but defeat them both.