Nick Chubb returns in Week 7 of the NFL: Cleveland Browns lead by 50 points over Cincinnati Bengals

Do yourself a favor and read Brown's RB Nick Chubb's article in The player's stand: “Cleveland turned its back on me.” My colleague and chief women’s products consultant Amber Snyder talked about it on Wednesday.

Chubb wrote about how much the Browns organization and Cleveland meant to him professionally and personally. It was beautiful and inspiring, so much so that I'm betting rent plus something on the Browns vs. the Cincinnati Bengals in NFL Week 7.

Cincinnati opened as a -4.5 away favorite over Cleveland, the vaporized immediately to -5/-5.5. As of Wednesday, the Bengals are the favorites at -6/-6.5, which leads me to my first pro-Cleveland factor: Bengals-Browns is mispriced, and I can prove it.

Bet on Browns +6.5 (-110) and “scatter” on Cleveland’s +240 moneyline at BetMGM

Cincy finished Week 6 on Sunday Night Football at -4.5 at the New York Giants. Cleveland is much better than last week's NYG team, which should have covered despite the absence of its biggest game-breaker, rookie WR Malik Nabers.

The Bengals beat the Giants 17-7 by scoring a meaningless touchdown with less than two minutes left to call bullsh*t Front door cover out of her ass. (Yes, I'm still annoyed about this result as I had New York +3.5 in my result Weekend Betting Guide And Approximately Million VI Enter the NFL Handicap Contest for Week 6).

Anyway, the Browns traded WR Amari Cooper to the Buffalo Bills on Tuesday for draft capital. Cincinnati went from -5.5 favorites to -6.5 after the trade and Cooper isn't worth 1.0 points at the spread. I was ready for the Browns at +4.5 when this line opened. If anything, as a Cleveland supporter, I would rather have the extra point.

Look, I like Cooper and he's on my fantasy team, so I'm happy about the trade. Cooper on the Bills with Josh Allen throwing passes to him makes sense, and he can be an asset for Buffalo. But this trade doesn't hurt the Browns much because Cooper hasn't played well for them. His nine drops are five more than the next closest wide receiver.

Nick Chubb passes the ball against the Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns Stadium in Ohio. (Jason Miller/Getty Images)

Plus, now that Chubb is back, Cleveland doesn't need Cooper as much. Chubb is one of the few running backs in the NFL who makes a difference. The four-time Pro Bowler is averaging 5.3 yards per carry for his career and posted four consecutive 1,000-yard seasons from 2019-2022. Last year, Chubb ran for 106 yards on 18 carries in a 24-3 Week 1 win over the Bengals.

Granted, the Browns have looked terrible, but they are getting healthier. Cleveland Pro Bowl Tackles Jedrick Wills And Jack Conklin launched for the first time last week. Cincinnati's offensive and defensive lines are the weakest part of this team, so the Browns should “win the line of scrimmage.”

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Speaking of which, Cleveland's defense owns Joe Burrow. He is 1-5 all-time against the Browns with a 63.6% completion percentage and 86.4 QB rating. For comparison, Burrow has a career completion rate of 68.3% and a QB rating of 99.9. Cleveland All-Pro Pass Rusher and 2023 NFL Defensive Player of the Year, Myles Garrett sacked Burrow nine times.

Cleveland Browns pass rusher Myles Garrett sacks Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow in NFL Week 1 last year. (Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer-USA TODAY NETWORK)

Plus, the Browns still haven't suffered their season-ending loss. I'm sure some of the guys in the Cleveland locker room believe they can win. Part of being a professional athlete is having great confidence in your abilities. Plus, the Browns have all of their division games in hand and are just one loss shy of Cincy, who everyone believes can still sneak into the playoffs.

After all, nobody wants anything to do with Cleveland and everyone is betting on Cincinnati. According to Pregame.com, more than 85% of the action on Wednesday took place on the Bengals. After the away favorites took a 9-0 lead last week against the spread, sportsbooks will return the favor in Week 7.

Prediction: Browns 23, Bengals 19

• To clarify, I would bet a full unit on Cleveland +6.5 and a third unit on the Browns win total (+240). This will be one of my five picks for NFL Week 7 of Circa Million VI.

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