NLCS Game 5 Odds, Picks, Best Bet

After another dominant offensive performance, the Los Angeles Dodgers are now just one win away from a World Series appearance.

Los Angeles seemed right at home in Queens, outscoring the Mets 18-2 since the NLCS moved to Citi Field.

With the Amazins on the verge of elimination from the playoffs, they will rely on David Peterson in Game 5 on Friday night, while the Dodgers will counter with Jack Flaherty.

The Mets opted to use Peterson out of the bullpen in October, and considering he hasn't pitched more than three innings in any of his last four appearances, I'm not sure there's a more difficult spot for him to be first start after the season.

Dodgers outlook

There has been a lot of discussion this season about the Dodgers lacking pitching depth. Finally, their staff suffered injuries to starters Clayton Kershaw, Tyler Glasnow, Dustin May, River Ryan, Tony Gonsolin and Gavin Stone, all of whom are unavailable for the playoffs.

But even with those injuries, the Dodgers could still have the best starting team of the four remaining teams competing for a pennant.

Flaherty has fit in pretty seamlessly in Los Angeles since moving here from Detroit for work. In ten starts with the Dodgers, he went 6-2 while posting a 3.58 ERA and 1.28 WHIP.

It was Flaherty who gave the Dodgers a 1-0 start in the series opener with seven shutout innings and a 9-0 victory over the Mets.

The Mets hit just .209 against him in 93 plate appearances, with a strikeout rate of 24.7%. They are also winless in their two career games against the right-hander.

Mets outlook

While Carlos Mendoza's decision to use Peterson is risky, I'm not sure he has many other options.

If starter Kodai Senga had looked healthy, he most likely would have been the pitcher who would have gotten the ball in such a crucial game.

Senga started Game 1 against the Dodgers but did not make it past the second inning after allowing three runs on two hits and four walks at a significantly reduced rate.

Peterson came into the game in the third inning but wasn't much better. In 2 ⅓ innings, he allowed three runs (two earned) on four hits.

However, when Mendoza met with the media, he expressed confidence in Peterson's ability to hit the ball in such a crucial game.

“He is completely rested. He was one of our starters — one of our best starters,” Mendoza told The Post. “We just feel like he’s going to give us the best chance.”

To be fair, the Mets are 2-1 against the Dodgers with Peterson on the mound. Their only loss came in a 10-3 loss in early May when the left-hander was making his season debut.

This time is Peterson's first postseason start in his career, and this Dodgers lineup rarely allows opposing pitchers to settle into their games.

Follow the Post's coverage of the Mets in the postseason:

Dodgers vs Mets prediction

The Dodgers do an excellent job of putting teams under pressure from the start. Shohei Ohtani leads the way at the plate, followed by Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman at third. All three of these hitters are former MVP winners.

In the last two games at Citi Field, the Dodgers scored one run in the first two innings. These early runs can discourage the opposition and completely deprive the home crowd of any pre-match excitement.

The Dodgers have excellent numbers against Peterson. In 72 plate appearances, they hit .343 with a .420 WOBA and a .620 xSLG.

Peterson will also be the second straight left-hander they will face, meaning their hitters won't have to do too much to change their approach.

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The Dodgers have been the better team in this series since the two teams met in the regular season, and I expect them to end this Mets magical run on Friday night.

Best Bet: Dodgers ML (-135, BetMGM)

Why you should trust New York Post Betting

For the New York Post, Michael Arinze hinders most major sports. He has won two 15-leg teasers and a 12-leg parlay in his betting career, which spanned eight games of the Little League World Series. Most recently, he precisely selected the finalists for the 2024 European Championship and the Copa América.