NLCS odds, picks, best bets

Pete Alonso did his part to ensure that the Amazins did not quietly disappear into the night.

The Mets slugger set the standard from the start, smashing a slider from Jack Flaherty into center field to give his team a 3-0 lead in the first inning of Game 5 of the NLCS. Five more runs followed in the third inning, ultimately leading to a 12-6 Mets victory and sending the series back to Los Angeles.

With the Mets still facing elimination, they will send arguably their best pitcher, Sean Manaea, to the mound for Game 6 on Sunday night. Manaea won his start in Game 2, while the Dodgers opted to start due to multiple injuries in their starting rotation.

With Los Angeles yet to name a starter, the Mets could benefit from a similar matchup in Game 6 at Dodger Stadium.

NLCS: Mets vs. Dodgers Game 6 Odds

Mets outlook

Manaea spent the first eight years of his career on the West Coast, playing for the Athletics, Padres and Giants. Therefore, he has plenty of experience when it comes to facing this strong Dodgers team year after year.

Like so many other teams, the Dodgers put their best hitters at the top of the order, meaning opposing pitchers face their biggest challenge right from the start when they take the mound.

Shohei Ohtani batted leadoff for the Dodgers, followed by Mookie Betts.

Manaea managed to keep Ohtani in check, limiting him to two hits in 10 at-bats with four strikeouts and one RBI. His handedness as a southpaw certainly helps cause problems for the Dodgers' bat.

Looking back at some of the swings he took in Game 2, the MVP frontrunner clearly looked unsure.

Manaea will be the third straight left-hander Los Angeles faces in the NLCS. That could be crucial since Dodgers manager Dave Roberts is already considering benching Freddie Freeman, one of his best left-handed hitters.

Even though Freeman has just one hit in his last 15 at-bats, there is still a risk that the former MVP winner will ruin a game if he steps into the batter's box.

Dodgers outlook

While we can only speculate who the Dodgers will put on the mound, Ryan Brasier will likely be in the running after tackling Manaea in Game 2. Brasier only pitched one inning but still suffered the loss after allowing one run in the first frame.

The reality is that there is too much randomness in relievers to place a high level of trust in either bullpen.

Although the Dodgers bullpen has a 3.65 ERA in this series, its FIP is even higher at 4.10. These signs of regression are similar to what we saw during the regular season when they posted a 3.53 ERA and 4.05 FIP.

The fact that Roberts is thinking about taking advantage of an opening kick and giving Freeman some rest might suggest he is already thinking about the long game.

The Dodgers are far and away the better team, but can they win a crucial Game 6 shorthanded when so many key players are dealing with injuries?

As good as the Dodgers have been this season, backing the favorite at -140 or higher is too high a price to pay given the great uncertainty.

NLCS: Mets vs. Dodgers Game 6 Pick

This was one of the highest-scoring series in recent memory, with each game surpassing the point total.

Both teams hit big home runs, and there's no reason to believe the Mets can't have similar success against the Dodgers' bullpen on Sunday.

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While there's no question that Los Angeles wants to win the game, Roberts won't burn his best pitchers if his team falls behind. So if the skipper takes a more cautious approach to managing his pitchers, there will be more opportunities for the Mets to get a win.

Given the possibility of such a scenario, the Mets are inherently more valuable as +124 underdogs.

Best Bet: Mets ML (+124, DraftKings)

Why should you trust New York Post Betting?

For the New York Post, Michael Arinze hinders most major sports. He has won two 15-leg teasers and a 12-leg parlay in his betting career, which spanned eight games of the Little League World Series. Most recently, he precisely selected the finalists for the 2024 European Championship and the Copa América.