NOAA releases latest La Niña winter forecast and outlook for the Pacific Northwest

PORTLAND, Ore. (KOIN) – A weak La Niña is likely to develop over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific over the next few months, according to the latest NOAA forecast.

The chance of experiencing a strong, long-lasting La Niña event becomes less likely in the winter of 2024-2025. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) expects equatorial waters in the Pacific to continue to cool, but not significantly differently than average. The average equatorial waters of the Pacific Ocean are called the ENSO neutral period.

A weak La Niña winter is expected, although the North American forecast model shows a slightly warmer trend, suggesting no La Niña winter and more of an ENSO-neutral winter. “A weaker La Niña implies that traditional winter impacts would be less likely to occur, although predictable signals could still influence the forecast. In summary, La Niña is expected to occur in September-November (60 percent chance) and is expected to last until January-March 2025,” the CPC discussion said.

A significant change in weather patterns is expected in the PNW next week

La Niña winter in the PNW

During a strong La Niña winter, much of the Pacific Northwest experiences cooler, wetter weather on average. Keep in mind that a strong La Niña is not expected during the 2024-2025 winter season.

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This winter is expected to see near-average winter conditions, with perhaps one or two more major winter storms. That would be the potential impact of a weak La Niña pattern on the Pacific Northwest.

ENSO neutral winter in the PNW

The equatorial waters in the Pacific will slowly begin to cool and transition into a weak La Niña pattern over the next few months. Some of the winter influences from the previous ENSO neutral pattern could lead to an average winter in the Pacific Northwest.

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An average winter in the Portland, Vancouver area means the same chance of seeing events like major snow or ice storms, but also the chance of experiencing warmer and drier conditions.

Stay with the KOIN 6 Weather Team in the coming months as the effects of La Niña continue to intensify.

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