October 22nd: The warmest day of the week, followed by two steps to cool down

October 22, 2024

Tuesday morning report

This late summer warmth will continue, with temperatures today reaching into the lower 80s for many. Sunshine was plentiful, making it easier to see through the leaves, but adding to the drought and worries about wildfires. There isn't much rain in sight and the only chance is a brief shower on Saturday with the second of two cold fronts this week.

TROPICAL STORM OSCAR

After crossing Cuba yesterday, the organization has become disorganized and is barely holding on. It moves through the southeastern Bahamas and out into the open Atlantic. The rapid increase in hurricane intensity last weekend was concerning, but that will not happen again.

Tropical satellite

Update at 5 a.m. from the National Hurricane Center

• LOCATION…22.7N 74.8W
• ABOUT 45 MI…75 KM SSE OF LONG ISLAND
• MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
• CURRENT MOTION…NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
• MINIMUM CENTRAL PRINT… 1006 MB… 29.71 INCHES

Satellite loop

This is a small storm with tropical storm force winds extending only 105 miles from the center.

Forecast track from the National Hurricane Center

SUMMARY OF APPLICABLE MONITORING AND ALERTS:

A tropical storm warning is in effect for…

• Central Bahamas
• Southeastern Bahamas

Morning surface weather

Oscar is controlled by the same high pressure system that keeps our weather in the eastern United States so warm and dry.

Local weather:

Weather forecast for the afternoon

Drought update

Conditions are very dry across much of the region. A severe drought has developed in the mountains from Western Maryland to West Virginia.

Extremely dry conditions on Delmarva will continue to increase over the coming week.

Baltimore stats:

Amount of precipitation

• -2.37 inches for the month
• There was only measurable rain on October 1st and 2nd
• Part of 11 consecutive days from September 22nd to October 2nd

BUT ONLY

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY, October 22nd

Sunrise at 7:24 a.m

Sunset at 6:17 p.m

Normal low in Baltimore: 44°F

Record temperature of 31°F in 1952

Normal high temperature in Baltimore: 66°F

record 85ºF in 1920; 1979

FIRST FROST DATES

Here is the average data across Maryland, and it matches the evidence we saw last week.

Click on this image to see more details about Maryland and Pennsylvania.

FOUR SUPERMOONS OF 2024

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WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 23

Still warm, but more clouds could bring temperatures down a bit.

Morning low

Afternoon high

The look forward

Wednesday weather

Still very warm, with a hint of cooler air on the way.

Animation: Wednesday to Sunday

A very calm weather picture, even with the transition of the air masses. There isn't much moisture to be found.

Saturday

The risk of a rain shower is slightly increased.

Sunday

Back to the true feeling of fall… WINDY and cooler.

7 day forecast

The transition back to “normal” will take place on Thursday and Friday. Then a second blast of colder air arrives on Sunday.

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Plan for a weather-dependent stem assembly

Severe weather: Storm Smart in October and next spring

Winter weather FITF (Faith in the Flakes): November to March

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REPEATING MY MESSAGE ON THE TOPIC OF LEGEND

I understand that there are some spelling and grammatical errors, as well as occasional other errors. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer errors I may miss. I've made a few public statements over the years, but if you're new here you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out about it in my sophomore year at Cornell University. However, that didn't stop me from getting my degree in meteorology and being the first to receive the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington area.

One of my professors told me that I had made it this far without knowing it and that I shouldn't let it be a crutch for the future. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely right! I miss my mistakes when proofreading myself. The automatic spell checker on my computer sometimes misses the mark and makes the problem worse. I can also make mistakes in forecasting. Nobody is perfect at predicting the future. All maps and information are correct. The “wordy” stuff can get sticky.

There was no editor to review my work when writing and have it ready to ship in a newsworthy time frame. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this website. She has made it her mission to correct typos when available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept that and perhaps prove that what you read is really mine… It's part of my charm. #FITF