October 24th: Windy and cooler, but warming up again and staying dry: increased fire risk

October 24, 2024

Report from Thursday morning

I'm increasingly worried that the lack of weather could become a weather story. The very nice and sunny days of the last three weeks included 11 days in a row with rain. There is no rain in sight next week, and now add the falling leaves with a blanket of dry leaves and there is an increased risk of wildfires.

We'll have some cooler days next week, coupled with more warm-ups that could bring us record highs next week…even on Halloween. With each swing there are gusty winds, which only increase the evaporation of the soil and the dryness.

FIRE DANGER

Red Flag Warning = The highest fire danger is in New Jersey.

Increased fire danger – most of the region. The strong winds and low humidity increase the chances of flames spreading!

With only two days of rain to start the month…AND we're down 5 inches since September 1st…AND now falling leaves potentially leading to ignition…Any flame can flare up quickly.

This can range from campfires to throwing a lit cigarette, but (yes, some people still smoke).

Drought update

This card is from last week. It will be updated today and I expect the drought colors to spread to more areas.

Conditions are very dry across much of the region. A severe drought has developed in the mountains from Western Maryland to West Virginia.

Delmarva will be extremely dry next week.

Baltimore stats:

Amount of precipitation

• -2.98 inches for the month
• There was only measurable rain on October 1st and 2nd
• Part of 11 consecutive days from September 22nd to October 2nd

DOWN

Morning surface weather

While we remain dry, there will be an influx of new air masses that will cause our temperatures to fluctuate somewhat. A rush of cooler air is met with a few more warm-ups.

Wind forecast 8:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m

Wind snapshot at midday

Weather forecast for the afternoon

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY, October 24th

Sunrise at 7:26 a.m

Sunset at 6:15 p.m

Normal low in Baltimore: 43°F

Record temperature of 25°F in 1969

Normal high temperature in Baltimore: 65°F

Record 82ºF in 2001

FIRST FROST DATES

Here is the average data across Maryland, and it matches the evidence we saw last week.

Click on this image to see more details about Maryland and Pennsylvania.

FOUR SUPERMOONS OF 2024

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FRIDAY, OCTOBER 25TH

Just dry! That is the topic. The lack of weather is the weather story.

Morning low

Afternoon high

The look forward

Saturday weather

Stay dry AND windy! There will be another push of cooler air…right on the edge of Canada…so temperatures will drop over the weekend.

Animation: Saturday to Tuesday

No rain! Even the cold front that arrives Saturday looks dry now. So I eliminated the chance of rain.

Temperatures will fluctuate a bit, mostly in the 60s in the afternoon, with 50s inland. Next week we will warm up again.

Tuesday

Another push of warm air as high pressure sets in to pump in more dry air with westerly winds. This will bring back the 70s once again.

7 day forecast

No rain in sight! Temperatures will be a bit of a rollercoaster ride, but nothing extreme. However, temperatures will be back in the 70s next week and perhaps 80s by Halloween (next Thursday).

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Plan for a weather-dependent stem assembly

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REPEATING MY MESSAGE ON THE TOPIC OF LEGEND

I understand that there are some spelling and grammatical errors, as well as occasional other errors. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer errors I may miss. I've made a few public statements over the years, but if you're new here you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out about it in my sophomore year at Cornell University. However, that didn't stop me from getting my degree in meteorology and being the first to receive the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington area.

One of my professors told me that I had made it this far without knowing it and that I shouldn't let it be a crutch for the future. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely right! I miss my mistakes when proofreading myself. The automatic spell checker on my computer sometimes misses the mark and makes the problem worse. I can also make mistakes in forecasting. Nobody is perfect at predicting the future. All maps and information are correct. The “wordy” stuff can get sticky.

There was no editor to review my work when writing and have it ready to ship in a newsworthy time frame. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this website. She has made it her mission to correct typos when available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept that and perhaps prove that what you read is really mine… It's part of my charm. #FITF