Ohio State vs. Oregon prediction: odds, expert tips, how to watch, QB matchup, betting trends and stats

Ohio State University's unmitigated dominance in 2024 continued unabated with a commanding 35-7 victory over the Iowa Hawkeyes. The Buckeyes (5-0, 2-0 in the Big Ten) won by an average points margin of 39 points (#1 in FBS) and ranked in the top 10 nationally in winning percentage, EPA/game and on both sides of the ball Points per scoring opportunity. The only statistical weakness is OSU, which allows a 64% completion rate and ranks 92nd in the FBS. However, Ohio State faces the lowest number of deep pass attempts in the nation, with only 5.1% of pass attempts defended going over 20 yards. The Buckeyes are in the midst of a difficult offseason against @Oregon, against Nebraska and @Penn State.

Oregon (5-0, 2-0 in the Big Ten) is still undefeated despite not looking great in its first two games against Idaho and Boise State. Since then, they have defeated Oregon State, UCLA and Michigan State by a combined score of 114-37 and re-established themselves as a feared program in Big Ten play. While the Ducks' offense ranks 9th in success rate and 7th in marginal efficiency, they don't outperform the field, such as their explosive play rate of 6.3% (85th) or their finishing drives averaging 4.35 points per goal opportunity (62nd). Defensively, their secondary is excellent, but OU is demonstrably soft on the ground, ranking 99th in EPA/Rush, 87th in yards per successful rush, and 114th in power success rate.

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Game details and how to watch Ohio State @ Oregon 2024 live

• Date: Saturday, October 12, 2024

• Time: 7:30pm EST

• Website: Autzen Stadium

• City: Eugene, Ore

• TV/Streaming: NBC/Peacock

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Ohio State @ Oregon Game Odds – Week 6

The latest odds from Thursday evening:

This line actually opened at -1 Oregon in preseason trading before switching sides and rising to the current -3/3.5 Ohio State when the market reopened this week. The moneyline started this week at -162 OSU is available between -145 and 155, while Oregon is between +118 and +135. The total value has increased from 51.5 points to the market high of 54.5 at the time of publication.

NBC Sports Bet Best Bet

NBC sports betting analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) believes there will be plenty of points in this contest:
“Oregon is 1-4 ATS and struggled to stop Boise State and RB Ashton Jeanty from moving the ball against them with impunity. Oregon needs to play a perfect game to beat the Buckeyes, but their defensive line hasn't shown the physicality needed to slow down Quinshon Judkins/TreVeyon Henderson. I’ll go for the -3.5 points and take the Buckeyes.”

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BetMGM College Football Insights: Heisman Trophy

Line movement (open, current)

• Ashton Jeanty +5000, +200

• Travis Hunter +3500, +300

• Cam Ward +20000, +500

• Jalen Milroe +800, +1100

• Quinn Ewers +800, +2000

• Jaxson Dart +2000, +2200

• Nico Iamaleava +1100, +3500

• Arch Manning +10000, +15000

Highest ticket percentage

• Travis Hunter 16.9%

• Nico Iamaleava 10.4%

• Cam Ward 7.5%

Highest grip %

• Travis Hunter 21.8%

• Cam Ward 9.7%

• Jalen Milroe 9.4%

Greatest liability

• Travis Hunter

• Nico Iamaleava

• Cam Ward

Quarterback matchup for Ohio State @ Oregon

• Ohio state: While importing several impact transfers, HC Ryan Day made improving the QB position his top priority in the portal this offseason. Kansas State transplant QB Will Howard got the call and took over the offense very quickly from OC Chip Kelly. Howard passed his first big test of the season, completing 21 of 25 passes for 205 yards and four touchdowns against Iowa's vaunted defense. He has an NFL passing grade of 122.7 and a PFF passing grade of 79.6 for this week's top matchup and will need to continue his high level of play if OSU wants to keep up with Oregon's potent offense.

• Oregon: Entering his sixth and final (we think?) collegiate campaign, Dillon Gabriel has amassed an incredible 16,321 passing yards and a 136-29 ratio in his illustrious career. He completes 77% of his passes (#1 in FBS) for 8.6 YPA and an 11-to-3 ratio for the undefeated Ducks, but his ADOT of 6.5 is the fourth-lowest average depth of target in the country. The emphasis on short-range passing is responsible for Oregon's unusually low explosive pass rate of 13%, which ranks 114th in the FBS. It will be interesting to see if Oregon can vertically emphasize Ohio State's elite defense.

Trends and current stats at Ohio State and Oregon

• Oregon is currently 1-4 ATS and 3-2 under. Despite outscoring their opponents by an average of 18 points, their “coverage” PPG is underwater at -8.1, ranking 118th nationally.

• Ducks DE Jordan Burch leads the team with 5.0 sacks and is tied for the team lead with 7.0 Havoc Plays. CB1 Jabbar Muhammad has allowed just five completions on 15 targets (33%) with 6 PBU and a forced incompletion rate of 40%.

• Superstar freshman WR Jeremiah Smith leads the team in receiving yardage (453) and touchdown catches (6) while running 36% of his routes downfield. It's clear why he's considered the best high school prospect since Julio Jones.

• Ohio State's defense has become a premier unit under the leadership of DC Jim Knowles, ranking 2nd in the FBS with a 12.1% sack rate. The Buckeyes were tough to beat, with an explosive pass rate allowed of 8.0% (2nd), and only 5.1% of the passes they faced went over 20 air yards.

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