Rockets opener keys to watch

The Houston Rockets 2024-25 season opener is just around the corner. What are the keys to pay attention to? For most fans, it will be the performances of their newly expanded star duo Alperen Sengun and Jalen Green. Going into the season without contract negotiations hanging over them will certainly ease the head-hanging mentality. Even though the Rockets managed to get him out of maximum pay, the five-year deal makes it clear that this is Sengun's team now.

Sengun's team will play its first game against the Charlotte Hornets. From a narrative perspective, it's not exactly the most dazzling duel. However, someone had to take on the Hornets, and other than possibly the Chicago Bulls with a hopefully rejuvenated Lonzo Ball, there isn't much narrative. Grant Williams' revenge game against the NBA finalists Dallas Mavericks?

But despite their recent weakness in the table, the Hornets are a team full of exciting young talent. The Rockets' stars will experience some exciting duels, although injuries may prevent fans from enjoying the duel's full potential.

Sengun's matchup in the Rockets opener

If all goes well, the Hornets would have their promising young 2022 draftee Mark Williams under center. Williams has performed well in limited play so far in his Charlotte career. In particular, he had an impressively low foul rate. He seems to have realized early on that trying to block every shot is usually not the most effective way to protect the rim. Unless you're Victor Wembanyama, of course, but it probably doesn't count if you don't even have to try to block other people's shots.

Unfortunately, Williams had to miss more games than he was able to play due to various injuries. Last year he appeared in the teal and purple colors just 19 times and played just 62 games total. Opening night may not be the 63rd.

The Williams replacement

Enter Nick Richards, a bouncy young tall man from Jamaica. Also enter the clear need for double teams on Sengun. Even with Williams' solid fundamentals and strong defensive instincts, the Hornets probably still would have opted for a double. It was a proven strategy against Houston all last season – double up on Sengun and make Houston's shooters beat you. Or better yet, make them shoot themselves in the foot.

The Hornets used this strategy in their Williams-less January matchup against the Rockets last season. Sengun only had seven shot attempts, although he was able to capitalize on the doubles to score seven assists. The Rockets outscored the Hornets like 34th birthday cake, 138 to 104.

Williams had been available for the previous game in Houston in November. The game was closer than the Rockets' 21 three-pointers with a shooting rate of 56.8% suggested. At the final whistle, the victorious Rockets only had a lead of nine points. The Hornets even got within five down the stretch. Sengun held himself relatively well in check with just 19 points and four assists. Whether Charlotte can do it again will be a big factor in the outcome of the game. The Rockets probably won't shoot over 50% from three after all.

The Perimeter Creators

Houston's other newly minted star will also get his first opportunity to show he's worth the investment. Green only had three years on his contract, with the final option being a player option. At a total of $106 million, his annual budget is close to Sengun's and he probably got the better deal from a player's perspective. Essentially, he gets the opportunity for a raise sooner. Assuming he can use the first two years to prove he's worth it.

In this game, he will try to outplay perimeter stars LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller. Miller, Charlotte's 2023 rookie selection, likely could have won rookie of the year in any normal season. Choosing him over Scoot Henderson was considered questionable by some at the time, but so far the decision seems to have paid off well. Despite his 6-foot-3 frame, Miller will likely start at guard in Charlotte's opening game. Of course, the distinction is largely irrelevant, especially if they add another guard alongside him in Josh Green. Still, a backcourt of Miller and the 6-foot-7 Ball sounds impressive in theory.

The last meeting between the teams

However, in the January matchup last season, Green was able to clearly prevail against them. He scored 36 points on 60% shooting and grabbed 10 rebounds. He may have benefited from Williams' absence more than Sengun, as Green tends to struggle with effective help on his drives.

One thing Green failed to do in this game was keep up with one of the Charlotte stars on defense. Dillon Brooks will almost certainly snag Miller this time around, too. However, it would be encouraging to see Green rise to the challenge of starting on Ball. Last time the job went to veteran Fred VanVleet. Of course, a player like Ball needs team effort and a bit of luck to avoid taking control with his fancy passes and shots. Last year they managed to contain him in both meetings, combining to score 13 of 31 goals. So one could argue that they should change as little as possible.

The last word

Frankly, the Rockets would have been off to a bad start if they lost this opener at home to a talented but confused Hornets team. As is often the case this season, the outcome will depend heavily on the team's ability to focus defensive attention on Sengun. Another, less reliable path to success would be for Green to outperform the other team's stars. Whatever happens, fans of both teams will enjoy seeing their boys play NBA basketball again. The keys are in the ignition. The Rockets' race for the play-in tournament is just around the corner.